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Xachariah 2 points ago +3 / -1

Shorting nvidia right now has to be the dumbest thing possible.

AI is here. Normal people can deploy it for fun hobbies. Companies can deploy it and make a return on investment within the year. Industries are either getting fucked by it, or using it to start making things at 10x compared to before (eg, actors v movies). And all of it is powered by nvidia.

You could cancel every pending nvidia order and they'd still be profitable for the next 20 years until AMD or some other company comes and dethrones them from AI.

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Xachariah 4 points ago +5 / -1

Michael Burry a genius at stocks and other things. Among his accomplishments is that he predicted and made bank off the 2008 crash. Right now, he's betting again that things are going to go to shit for the economy, and soon.

SPY and QQQ are megafunds. SPY is a variety pack of the 500 biggest companies, more or less. QQQ is similar but tech companies.

Puts/Shorts are ways to bet that things will go down. You borrow stock today to sell, with a binding promise to buy it back later at the new price. Eg, you think Disney at $80 is going to drop to $20 because of a scandal, so you short 10 shares to get $800. If it drops to $20, you can buy the shares back for $200, and net $600 in profit. If it instead raises to $200, now you need to come up with $2,000 to cover the shares you shorted. Puts are similar, but you pay a premium to make sure you don't lose more than a certain amount if you mess up.

He thinks those stocks are going to crash, but those stocks are bundles of the entire market focusing on big companies/tech. So this guy thinks the entire market is about to get down into shitsville, and he's got a solid track record of being right. That said, he's not betting everything on this. It looks like he's betting a lot but he hasn't put up everything in a blackjack bet here.

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Xachariah 2 points ago +3 / -1

I don't fathom how you don't believe in germs. In your mental framework for disease, how do you explain food poisoning? Or contaminated water? It's pretty straightforward that we can make predictions from germ theory and see usable results in real life.

Eg, food stored at room temperature will go bad because of bacteria, but won't if you kill the bacteria via canning (or other sterilizing methods, like irradiation). Water that is infected with disease will get you sick, but won't if you kill the bacteria by boiling.

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Xachariah 4 points ago +4 / -0

I remember back when reddit flipped from gobbling Elon Musk's nuts to hating him worse than Hitler.

It flipped like a lightswitch. Just like the antivax narrative, you could see the PR engines running in real time.

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Xachariah 3 points ago +3 / -0

Storage and actual acquisition seems like an issue.

If I want to dip out of the stock market, how the fuck do I get a hold of and store 6 tons of nickels?

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Xachariah 3 points ago +3 / -0

Toilet Paper was never a 'panic buy'; real market forces caused it be sold out.

Before the lockdowns, about half of all TP usage was commercial TP (in those big rolls) and half was home. Once the lockdowns hit, that went to 90/10 or worse. This means commercial TP isn't getting used and home TP is getting used a lot more. If you just needed 'TP' you could always buy the big commercial rolls, but the residential rolls were what disappeared from store shelves.

TP is a low margin industry that's completely replaceable, which means any company in the space is working off of extremely tight margins made possible by very efficient manufacturing plants. This means they can't just ramp up production because trying to do so efficiently means more plants, which takes a long time (and would be unprofitable as soon as the the lockdowns stop).

This is why residential TP took so long to stabilize, and why we still see shortages and purchase limits.

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Xachariah 1 point ago +1 / -0

I've been using Kagi, which is in beta and invite only right now (but seems to just accept whomever).

It works better than google and DDG, and it's biggest call to fame is that it lets you identify domains and block/up/down/pin their rank. After having used it for a short while, it's pretty great how quickly I'm able to permanently filter out the bullshit.

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Xachariah 11 points ago +11 / -0

A Ukranian AFV oversteers and runs over a car.

"Stunning footing of Russians just going out of their way to drive over civilians in tanks!"

Meanwhile everybody jerks off about how evil Russia is and ignores why the fuck Russians would have sent an anti-aircraft vehicle to drive through Kyiv alone with no support hundreds of miles from the front line.

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Xachariah 4 points ago +4 / -0

I thought it was rediculous hyperbole that in Atlas Shrugged, society would fall apart because the government was so literally retarded it would cause society to completely break down unable to function.

Turns out Rand was actually correct.

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Xachariah 3 points ago +3 / -0

KotakuInAction2 isn't exactly a normie-tier ConsumeProduct.

It has a specific mandate is to look at and identify patterns in collusion or where the media is caught lying. The name comes after Kotaku got caught in the Gamergate scandal in 2014 and just tried to bully through with lies.

This was the first big visible instance of media companies trying and failing to rewrite reality with lies, and served as a prelude to the 2016 election which saw it all over the place. It is still relatively narrowly focused on identifying media lies / misinformation / rewriting of history.

by pkvi
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Xachariah 10 points ago +10 / -0

Don't worry about it guys. Dems have told me that walls NEVER work.

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Xachariah 2 points ago +3 / -1

Yeah, in one of those timelines we had strong communities and could rely on stable family units, except everybody was speaking German. No thanks!