I have no more working crystal ball than you, but I'll bite the bait:
Flood the Zone is working : it's the OODA loop on acid. In the background they are doing: US debt reset, preparing AI-fying everything, owning everyone's data, building up mRNA vaccine SWF, sending more and more billions to Israel, raping Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria - redrawing the whole map
Tariffs may or may not be a real thing. There are bigger things at play (gov debt maturity wall hitting in '25-'27 that will dwarf everything). They need to restructure debt. Tariffs have so far shown to have been merely tactical negotiation weapons, that's all. US trade and economy can't decouple (yet) from Mex, Can, Chi, ME, EU, without plunging into depression.
If they shrink the Gov spending (by cutting spending/jobs), that'll cut gov. deb creation, which is MONEY in circulation. IF the uncertainty and chaos cause private credit creation to shrink (which is the second, bigger half, of available MONEY in creation), then US will go into, not a recession, but a depression. Perhaps an interim goal?
To get interest rates down for gov. deb, they need to restructure the debt (swap for perpetual bonds, haircuts) and devalue the USD. Difficult, as there are counter parties on the other side of the deal, who don't like losing. Hence the tactical negotiation sticks (tariffs, etc)
To get rid of the income tax (<$150K), they need to CUT insanely on gov debt site (see 3.) and/or supplant income with other Gov sources (tariffs can't make that, as it would decouple US from world trade, which cant't be done. See M. Pettís, B. Setser and S. Keen for actual monetary / current account balance analysis for this). Cutting down income tax isn't enough for recovery, as US doesn't make it's own stuff (it has to import) and if tariffs are high to replace the lost income tax revenue, then tariffs will eat away buying power, no recovery, high inflation = stagflation.
Medicare/SS. Yes, most likely they don't/can't cut that, as that would not only plunge the country into depression, but into a deflationary chaos. Unless that's the goal (I give it very low probability, but that would be great move to break up the Federal government and secession to happen). So, highly unlikely for it to be cut, as every organization would fight it to the end. Survival issue.
Lol, no. Do you honestly think that the healthy jews from hedge funds of Florida and NY are going to be taxed more in the ZOG adminstration? Or Buffett? Or Black Rock/Vanguard/State Street? Please gimme what you're smoking, because it's clearly hilarious.
Elon, pass. Not smart enought to be a player, not sure smart enough to be a fall guy either.
The rest of the world has: 90% of the minerals, 90% of the primary energy, 80% of the buying power, 90% of the production capacity, best demographics, best economic growth, best innovation, most educated highly skilled workforce and not yet a ZOG-infested parasite system (sans EU/UK/AUS, which are). So they'll do just fine, thank you.
I can't see a white pill here, but I do see a beginning of a MIGA-flavoured transparent delusion pill.
Energy physics and Economics trumps all in the end. Everything else is just entertainment and theatrics of the simple-minded who are easily fooled.
Yeah you're seeing a false remoralization by returning us to the liberalism of 2015. The people celebrate that as a win as the rug gets pulled ever more taut
He's shown the opposite of that, even announcing plans to take over Gaza. And of course promises of "hell to pay" in the Middle East for messing with Rothschild's Israel. Put down whatever you are smoking.
they're going to deflate it away by making the interest on the debt Zero (see Mar-a-Lago Accord)
It would be the first time in history most likely. Find me a nation in history with huge outstanding debt and deficit spending that got out of debt with deflation. Large debts means you're putting upward pressure on interest rates for future borrowing. If not you're putting no checks on inflation. A crash will mitigate some of the damage of high asset prices, but there is no magic path to 0% rates on US debt.
The biggest items in the federal budget, medicare/medicaid, SS and the military budget remain untouched. They comprise over 3/4 of the budget. Interest on debt is 11% of total spending. Let's say interest rates are somehow cut in half (big if) that's still over 5%. 5% of 6.8 trillion is 0.34 trillion, which doesn't cover the deficit. DOGE ain't cutting 1.5 trillion to fix the rest.
Tax cuts increase the deficit and tariffs won't make up for it. Trumps proposed adventures into Mexico, possibly Greenland and Gaza will be more emergency deficit spending.
Isn’t it funny how every single “real user” just so happens to coincidentally use the exact same buzzword every single time the real word needs to be brought up?
I have no more working crystal ball than you, but I'll bite the bait:
Flood the Zone is working : it's the OODA loop on acid. In the background they are doing: US debt reset, preparing AI-fying everything, owning everyone's data, building up mRNA vaccine SWF, sending more and more billions to Israel, raping Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria - redrawing the whole map
Tariffs may or may not be a real thing. There are bigger things at play (gov debt maturity wall hitting in '25-'27 that will dwarf everything). They need to restructure debt. Tariffs have so far shown to have been merely tactical negotiation weapons, that's all. US trade and economy can't decouple (yet) from Mex, Can, Chi, ME, EU, without plunging into depression.
If they shrink the Gov spending (by cutting spending/jobs), that'll cut gov. deb creation, which is MONEY in circulation. IF the uncertainty and chaos cause private credit creation to shrink (which is the second, bigger half, of available MONEY in creation), then US will go into, not a recession, but a depression. Perhaps an interim goal?
To get interest rates down for gov. deb, they need to restructure the debt (swap for perpetual bonds, haircuts) and devalue the USD. Difficult, as there are counter parties on the other side of the deal, who don't like losing. Hence the tactical negotiation sticks (tariffs, etc)
To get rid of the income tax (<$150K), they need to CUT insanely on gov debt site (see 3.) and/or supplant income with other Gov sources (tariffs can't make that, as it would decouple US from world trade, which cant't be done. See M. Pettís, B. Setser and S. Keen for actual monetary / current account balance analysis for this). Cutting down income tax isn't enough for recovery, as US doesn't make it's own stuff (it has to import) and if tariffs are high to replace the lost income tax revenue, then tariffs will eat away buying power, no recovery, high inflation = stagflation.
Medicare/SS. Yes, most likely they don't/can't cut that, as that would not only plunge the country into depression, but into a deflationary chaos. Unless that's the goal (I give it very low probability, but that would be great move to break up the Federal government and secession to happen). So, highly unlikely for it to be cut, as every organization would fight it to the end. Survival issue.
Lol, no. Do you honestly think that the healthy jews from hedge funds of Florida and NY are going to be taxed more in the ZOG adminstration? Or Buffett? Or Black Rock/Vanguard/State Street? Please gimme what you're smoking, because it's clearly hilarious.
Elon, pass. Not smart enought to be a player, not sure smart enough to be a fall guy either.
The rest of the world has: 90% of the minerals, 90% of the primary energy, 80% of the buying power, 90% of the production capacity, best demographics, best economic growth, best innovation, most educated highly skilled workforce and not yet a ZOG-infested parasite system (sans EU/UK/AUS, which are). So they'll do just fine, thank you.
I can't see a white pill here, but I do see a beginning of a MIGA-flavoured transparent delusion pill.
Energy physics and Economics trumps all in the end. Everything else is just entertainment and theatrics of the simple-minded who are easily fooled.
Yeah you're seeing a false remoralization by returning us to the liberalism of 2015. The people celebrate that as a win as the rug gets pulled ever more taut
That's a whole lot of copium.
He's shown the opposite of that, even announcing plans to take over Gaza. And of course promises of "hell to pay" in the Middle East for messing with Rothschild's Israel. Put down whatever you are smoking.
It would be the first time in history most likely. Find me a nation in history with huge outstanding debt and deficit spending that got out of debt with deflation. Large debts means you're putting upward pressure on interest rates for future borrowing. If not you're putting no checks on inflation. A crash will mitigate some of the damage of high asset prices, but there is no magic path to 0% rates on US debt.
The biggest items in the federal budget, medicare/medicaid, SS and the military budget remain untouched. They comprise over 3/4 of the budget. Interest on debt is 11% of total spending. Let's say interest rates are somehow cut in half (big if) that's still over 5%. 5% of 6.8 trillion is 0.34 trillion, which doesn't cover the deficit. DOGE ain't cutting 1.5 trillion to fix the rest.
Tax cuts increase the deficit and tariffs won't make up for it. Trumps proposed adventures into Mexico, possibly Greenland and Gaza will be more emergency deficit spending.
So, long story short, stagflation.
Isn’t it funny how every single “real user” just so happens to coincidentally use the exact same buzzword every single time the real word needs to be brought up?
I think that’s interesting.
You’ll notice I made no comment on it.
The deep deep state is dismantling the deep shallow state.