There've been a few posts recently about how total deaths in the US this year are down compared to previous years. I was curious, so I ran the numbers myself based on the same CDC data that other posters and their sources supposedly used.
I pulled the last 4 years of weekly raw data from the CDC here: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
Then I tallied and compared the totals for the first 47 weeks of each year (these numbers are TOTAL DEATHS FROM ALL CAUSES in the US):
2017 2515944
2018 2551868
2019 2559485
2020 2886361
Based on this data, total deaths are up by over 300,000 this year vs each of the last 3 years, which were each within 50,000 of one another.
Whenever I mention these stats on conspiracies.win I get downvoted, but nobody ever has a response, so I think I'm on to something!
What do you think could've caused this?
Strange that US deaths are up so much but if you look at a country like Sweden and they have no increase. It’s almost like all the lockdowns were the thing that caused the mass death but they don’t want you to know that
It has more to do with the effect the lockdowns have on the economy. You've heard "Every percent the unemployment rate goes up, 40,000 people die". Its not exact but there is a strong correlation between unemployment and people dying. I think the shut downs/ lock downs/ banning business from operating will be looked at and studied for a long time.
The consequences of the government response to the epidemic shouldn't be worse than the disease itself
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0k5aVLi_yhM
That is interesting https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/
If you adjust for the missing 20 days in December the yearly projected total for Sweden 2020 is 94678, so 6k more than last year, but only a couple thousand more than 2018.
Exactly, isn’t it weird that a country that did nothing is not seeing any change in death?
I want to understand too. Explain like I am five, please.
Sorry I don't understand what you're referring to. These numbers I posted are total deaths from all causes for the first 47 weeks of each year (because that's all that was available for 2020 at the time I compiled them).
I am more inclined to believe the conspiracy here is that the CDC is falsely inflating 2020 death counts.
Yeah that's totally fair, definitely top of mind for me too. But I've seen a few posts here recently that used CDC data in support so figured I'd look into it.
In one year the CDC changed their count of Lyme disease cases from 30,000 to 300,000 because they finally had to admit it was a fucking epidemic that they have been lying about. The CDC is a corrupt, lying organization — just like the rest of the government.
Senicide more specifically. In the communist new world we won’t have room for useless eaters like “old people” or “social justice warriors”
Thanks, will look this up.
Hmm, interesting. I hadn't heard this particular number before, but makes sense that unemployment would lead to more deaths.
Looks like Wade Thomas, the author of that original study (from 1981), isn't confident that it would hold up today, as stated earlier this year:
https://nypost.com/2020/04/20/explaining-the-link-between-unemployment-deaths-amid-coronavirus/
But definitely worth considering. The original study attributed over half of the increased deaths to heart attacks, so if it holds we may be able to find some evidence in heart attack death rates for 2020.
Yeah that's my understanding, and I agree. 300k+ seems like a lot to attribute to increased stress alone, but it certainly must be a factor.
I work in healthcare. A lot of patients are so terrified of covid, they're unwilling to leave their homes for doctor's appts or even to go to the ER with an actual emergency. We've seen a worsening of chronic conditions and the results of delayed screenings and treatment more this year than in many years prior. More patients than usual are dying of heart attacks, strokes, pulmonary emboli, kidney failure, dKA, etc., at home. Healthcare is even more of a mess right now than it was before. Maybe this could account for some of the increased numbers, if those numbers are in fact accurate.
Wish I could give you two thumbs up! I did this same analysis back in August and again in November when folks were posting that deaths were similar to prior years. What they were doing was taking the full year of 2017-2018-2019 and comparing to the first 7 (or 10) months of 2020.
I pulled the same data you are using from the CDC site and saw that deaths were way up in a year to date comparison. No algorithms of excess vs non-excess, covid vs non-covid, just pure number of deaths year over year. Very stable 2017-2019, then we have this 300k uptick in 2020.
Why people keep posting that deaths are 'normal' in the US is beyond me. Most folks won't take the effort that you (or I) did and actually CHECK. It's not that hard. Took me about 30 minutes tops to find the data, format it appropriately, and compare.
You, OP, are a true researcher. Keep it up and you will get vaccinated against BS of many kinds being posted to drive various narratives.
Stop jerking each other. It's excess deaths that is the relevant stat.
OK - since OP got 300k by simply subtracting the three year average of total deaths from 2020 total deaths - AND the excess death calculation from the CDC is 300k deaths - your point is?
Difference is OP's method can be validated by my 11 year old daughter vs excess death calculations which have a large amount of inputs that we can't easily get our hands on to properly calculate the expected deaths.
And in the end, you get the SAME answer!
That's not how excess deaths work.
Excess dearhs = actual deaths less expected deaths
Expected deaths are a calculated number with multiple inputs.
What’s incorrect?
conspiracies.win, where uncomfortable statistics are silently downvoted and sexy photos of the first lady are upvoted to the top.
Sorry, I didn't address this in my first response. I thought I did make this clear in my original post though:
Because when it fits the narrative, people here are more than happy to upvote CDC statistics. Look at this shitpost that got 50 upvotes: https://conspiracies.win/p/11R4ufrAqE/with-covid-having-such-a-devasta/c/
Maybe I should've put my back of napkin statistics in a power point and took a picture of my computer monitor with my phone, then posted it without any actual links to the data at hand. That would be more conspiracies.win style.
The great thing about the napkin data I shared: you don't have to trust me! You can run the numbers yourself! Because I shared the source and my process!
And yeah, totally reasonable to not trust CDC data, but that doesn't explain the downvotes given that there are several other posts on this site based on CDC data that people here find more palatable.
What are you referring to? Are you accusing me of not pulling the raw data on total deaths (all causes) and tallying the numbers for the first 47 weeks of each year?
LOL. Wow, conspiracies.win, baby. A place for serious discussions.
Come back when you hit puberty and I'll explain statistics to you. In the meantime, just keep on deflecting, I know it feels safer than facing up to reality.