There've been a few posts recently about how total deaths in the US this year are down compared to previous years. I was curious, so I ran the numbers myself based on the same CDC data that other posters and their sources supposedly used.
I pulled the last 4 years of weekly raw data from the CDC here: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
Then I tallied and compared the totals for the first 47 weeks of each year (these numbers are TOTAL DEATHS FROM ALL CAUSES in the US):
2017 2515944
2018 2551868
2019 2559485
2020 2886361
Based on this data, total deaths are up by over 300,000 this year vs each of the last 3 years, which were each within 50,000 of one another.
Whenever I mention these stats on conspiracies.win I get downvoted, but nobody ever has a response, so I think I'm on to something!
What do you think could've caused this?
Wish I could give you two thumbs up! I did this same analysis back in August and again in November when folks were posting that deaths were similar to prior years. What they were doing was taking the full year of 2017-2018-2019 and comparing to the first 7 (or 10) months of 2020.
I pulled the same data you are using from the CDC site and saw that deaths were way up in a year to date comparison. No algorithms of excess vs non-excess, covid vs non-covid, just pure number of deaths year over year. Very stable 2017-2019, then we have this 300k uptick in 2020.
Why people keep posting that deaths are 'normal' in the US is beyond me. Most folks won't take the effort that you (or I) did and actually CHECK. It's not that hard. Took me about 30 minutes tops to find the data, format it appropriately, and compare.
You, OP, are a true researcher. Keep it up and you will get vaccinated against BS of many kinds being posted to drive various narratives.
Stop jerking each other. It's excess deaths that is the relevant stat.
OK - since OP got 300k by simply subtracting the three year average of total deaths from 2020 total deaths - AND the excess death calculation from the CDC is 300k deaths - your point is?
Difference is OP's method can be validated by my 11 year old daughter vs excess death calculations which have a large amount of inputs that we can't easily get our hands on to properly calculate the expected deaths.
And in the end, you get the SAME answer!
That's not how excess deaths work.
Excess dearhs = actual deaths less expected deaths
Expected deaths are a calculated number with multiple inputs.
What’s incorrect?