TY, good analysis. Comments of the post add to it. Game theoretically makes sense. Israel's repsonse will prove or falsify this hypothesis (i.e. no escalation -> Iran controls the escalation ladder now).

I was surprised by the lack of Tit-for-tat response from Iran, but the above posted analysis makes sense even from game theory POV.

Also, the winner is US MICG, who'll be wanting more :

"Israel's defense of last night's Iranian missile and drone attack is estimated to have costed over $1.3 billion in jet fuel, surface-to-air missile interceptors, air-to-air missiles, and other military equipment utilized by the Israeli air defense."