Whodunnit? That is the question.
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Because Ukraine have reportedly crossed, who know where, it's huge, but they were occupied on the central Islands now flooded and submerged. As well as in Kherson. Now useless. Of course it also halts advances to Odessa. But currently it has done what to the offense?
No, historically river crossing in flooding in every major conflict dating back to the beginning of civilization has been treacherous, including in WW2.
The same as gaining ground through flooding. The water level rising has now widened the area needed to be crossed. Defensively is it easier or harder to defend? No, the water level has not risen to the same incline, otherwise everywhere is submerged. It hasn't made an incline easier if it has expanded the river's surface area.
I am playing odds. Probability.
But you never know, what Ukraine are capable of. If the offensive went badly. Reeeeeee. They're almost suicidal. But come on? Defensively there is an advantage.
Tried to cross, multiple times, always without any success. Obviously Russian forces perfectly know where.
In the last days there was no any unusually high activity, so there is no difference at all.
I was on that islands many times in my childhood for fishing (have a relatives there), they are mostly swamps, only two of them had permanent settlements on kind of heights on them. This islands flooded every spring and are hardly suitable for anything. We cut the grass for livestock on them, as many locals did, that is the only use of them. You can't even dig a trench, because it will be immidiately flooded by ground water.
I don't know. Obviously it depends on the landscape, resources of each side and so on. If defending side build fortifications close to the water and offending side have advantage in boats and firepower and air superiority, then flood will make offensive easier. If defending side have fortifications far away from water and have superiority in air and firepower, then offenders will have big problems.
I don't know where, the river goes the length of the Ukraine. But Ukraine supposedly made a beachhead amassing. This was reported in most sources like Reuters, Guardian, it was around the time of Bakhmut's fall, when Ukraine pressed on the Russian retreat, or there after their defeat, while talk of the counteroffensive was being fully hyped. I believe it was somewhere Zaprozhzhia or Kherson. But don't quote me, it could've been anywhere. I didn't take much notice, apart from this memory of mine. It doesn't remember names, they're gibberish, just the content or the note.
Regardless in this conflict, crossing the river had laid traps on the Russian advance, where if we go back a year, last year, when a Russian brigade was annihilated attempting it. It has since been contentious crossing. Many bridges have been destroyed by both. However after Kherson, Ukraine had advanced claiming the central Islands. Yes they have settlements on them, some are large enough to host troops and equipment. Now ironically submerged.
Tactically, if I am funnelling into choke points I know I'd want my flanks covered.
If on probability we look at dam breaches, directly after Bakhmut, Russia knocked out a dam in the Dontesk region. It was ahead of Bakhmut to the West.
Regardless, crossing is treacherous, it has in every warfare in history where great feats of engineering have sometimes come up with solutions after losses, or they have faired badly. Because defensively it is often like shooting fish in barrel, movement across rivers.
I am basing the probability, hence my bittersweet humor. It's dastardly but perhaps accidental and ironic.
That islands are nearly flat and any troops there will be a perfect targets. Trenches could not be made because there is ground water a meter below surface, not even talking about swamped islands. I perfectyl know that area, I was on every island personally in 80-s, and AFAIK Ukraine didn't do anything to rise and develop swampy islands, even the settlements didn't change a lot, if google/yandex satellite maps do not lie. It will be just suicidal to place troops on that islands.
As for the dam blow Ukrainian commanders have that plans earlier - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offensive-kharkiv-kherson-donetsk/
But it seems (as by locals reports) that this time there was no any explosions or strikes, at least from artillery or MLRS, and gates damaged by earlier Ukrainian strikes that Kovalchuk told about just broke finally and rapid water flow destroyed other gates.
Accidental and ironic.
The Russian villages then were in the integrated Kherson oblast. After Kherson withdrawal, all territory West of the river and the Islands in it, were claimed by Ukraine. Russia retreated geographically to the East of the river. Yes while it was in Russian hands, I also did read the report of purported Ukrainian strikes on the dam, last year prior to withdrawal. As previously past conversation, a factor in withdrawal of Kherson, it among plenty of reasoning from the low ground that is unfavourable to artillery, and supporting an attacked city in Winter subjected to greater supply lines and outages, plus tactically Russia can return fire on a hostile city, where the Ukrainian forward line pressed, and your aforementioned bridge subjected to constant Ukrainian strikes until changing hands, now viceversa. It was blown up on Russian retreat of Kherson?
But sadly you won't change my opinion that it is an advantage. Does it prove it was accidental or deliberate? I can only find irony.
However there are questions of how the water level is affected upstream? If the reservoir drains, is it easier to cross upstream as water rushes downstream. Perhaps this could become contentious. Again it is hardly significant because river crossing would be subjected to the same historic status, unless it dropped well below the average tables?
And in every event the battlefield adjusts, reshaping. Forced to change tactics, and reposition in light of the new geography that won't be dammed again in conflict.