Whodunnit? That is the question.
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I don't know where, the river goes the length of the Ukraine. But Ukraine supposedly made a beachhead amassing. This was reported in most sources like Reuters, Guardian, it was around the time of Bakhmut's fall, when Ukraine pressed on the Russian retreat, or there after their defeat, while talk of the counteroffensive was being fully hyped. I believe it was somewhere Zaprozhzhia or Kherson. But don't quote me, it could've been anywhere. I didn't take much notice, apart from this memory of mine. It doesn't remember names, they're gibberish, just the content or the note.
Regardless in this conflict, crossing the river had laid traps on the Russian advance, where if we go back a year, last year, when a Russian brigade was annihilated attempting it. It has since been contentious crossing. Many bridges have been destroyed by both. However after Kherson, Ukraine had advanced claiming the central Islands. Yes they have settlements on them, some are large enough to host troops and equipment. Now ironically submerged.
Tactically, if I am funnelling into choke points I know I'd want my flanks covered.
If on probability we look at dam breaches, directly after Bakhmut, Russia knocked out a dam in the Dontesk region. It was ahead of Bakhmut to the West.
Regardless, crossing is treacherous, it has in every warfare in history where great feats of engineering have sometimes come up with solutions after losses, or they have faired badly. Because defensively it is often like shooting fish in barrel, movement across rivers.
I am basing the probability, hence my bittersweet humor. It's dastardly but perhaps accidental and ironic.
That islands are nearly flat and any troops there will be a perfect targets. Trenches could not be made because there is ground water a meter below surface, not even talking about swamped islands. I perfectyl know that area, I was on every island personally in 80-s, and AFAIK Ukraine didn't do anything to rise and develop swampy islands, even the settlements didn't change a lot, if google/yandex satellite maps do not lie. It will be just suicidal to place troops on that islands.
As for the dam blow Ukrainian commanders have that plans earlier - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offensive-kharkiv-kherson-donetsk/
But it seems (as by locals reports) that this time there was no any explosions or strikes, at least from artillery or MLRS, and gates damaged by earlier Ukrainian strikes that Kovalchuk told about just broke finally and rapid water flow destroyed other gates.
Accidental and ironic.
The Russian villages then were in the integrated Kherson oblast. After Kherson withdrawal, all territory West of the river and the Islands in it, were claimed by Ukraine. Russia retreated geographically to the East of the river. Yes while it was in Russian hands, I also did read the report of purported Ukrainian strikes on the dam, last year prior to withdrawal. As previously past conversation, a factor in withdrawal of Kherson, it among plenty of reasoning from the low ground that is unfavourable to artillery, and supporting an attacked city in Winter subjected to greater supply lines and outages, plus tactically Russia can return fire on a hostile city, where the Ukrainian forward line pressed, and your aforementioned bridge subjected to constant Ukrainian strikes until changing hands, now viceversa. It was blown up on Russian retreat of Kherson?
But sadly you won't change my opinion that it is an advantage. Does it prove it was accidental or deliberate? I can only find irony.
However there are questions of how the water level is affected upstream? If the reservoir drains, is it easier to cross upstream as water rushes downstream. Perhaps this could become contentious. Again it is hardly significant because river crossing would be subjected to the same historic status, unless it dropped well below the average tables?
And in every event the battlefield adjusts, reshaping. Forced to change tactics, and reposition in light of the new geography that won't be dammed again in conflict.
Yes, it was. It was already unuseable during retreat and there was no time to fix it so we use pontones to withdraw, then blow the bridge completely to completely cut the way for offence of the enemy.
Locals from Kakhovka down the dum tell that water level already lowering, so no any significant changes of water level higher than dum awaited if something else did not broke. Total level fall is near 2.5 meters for now, but reservouir have steep banks, so width stays hearly the same.
In usual war. This war is in no way usual.
Hang on. The river's closest points are at Kherson oblast. The widest points are further upstream. It snakes around going out to sea, and had been dammed. I think there might be some in Donetsk as well. I don't know enough about its channels, run offs, and outflows.
Water levels lowering where. Water doesn't lower in a flood. It has increased. It doesn't change because the geography has changed. The river has changed. Yes it will drop slightly as it runs into floodplains and estuaries expanding. But the water level has risen. The dam has burst. The reservoir, is one of the largest in the World, and it will drop to a point below dammed, but likely not significant enough to drive vehicles across. Those points were in few places, and they weren't the main waterways, bridged? Now however the river has expanded.
Upstream is dammed. This is where there might possibly be Ukrainian meddling, by releasing dams and allowing more water downstream. However the river is at its widest, much of upstream, and there are still many active bridges crossing it regardless the further North.