Whodunnit? That is the question.
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It’s in Russia-controlled territory, so Ukraine. This is the prelude to the nuclear disaster false flag that will come in the next few months. The reservoir behind the dam is used to cool Zaporizhzhia. Western media will release articles (all at once, just you fucking watch) about how “the dam being destroyed puts the plant at risk of meltdown,” Russia will rebuke this claim, and then all of a sudden the plant will explode (Russia will claim a heavy missile barrage; Ukraine will deny; video will be posted; all Western video sites will take the video down in lockstep and prevent it from being posted ever again) and it will be Russia’s fault.
Russian NPPs never use natural reservoirs or reservoirs directly connected to natural water for cooling to prevent contamination of natural water reservoir in case of leak to second/third contour or other disaster. There is always separate cooling ponds that is used to cool the NPP. Water periodically added to that ponds if water level fall due to evapuration, or poured in case of rains or snow melting in spring. Ponds built to have more than enough volume to cool NPP at maximum power endlessly. You could see that ponds on satellite maps easily. If there will be need to add water to ponds (which is definitely not the case in low power mode), it will be just pumped from the Dnepr, regardless of water level.
So lowering level in Dnepr in no way could do any harm to ZNPP.
Also, AFAIK dam itself was not destroyed, only gates that adjust water level damaged. So level fall and flood would be much less in comparison to the case when dam itself would have been blown.
There isn't much danger to the reactor, there's a secondary dam further up stream. It can fill the reactor ponds. The over capacity reservoir, not maintained in conflict, spilled, bursting the dam, and it remarkably flooded the lower Kherson ground held by Ukraine, and submerged the Islands also occupied by Ukraine.
This strategically doesn't need as much manpower defending that side, if any offensive is pushing from the north down, it can divert some of them. It has cut off a much bigger avenue from the southwest.
Who knows what caused it. But it smells dastardly.
Or please explain? Tactically it seems advantageous to defense. Offense if crossing it is in for hell, until the level stabilises and adjusts to the new levels of flooding, it won't be for some time. Meanwhile it has to concern itself with rescue and evacuation.
But it also puts more danger on the reactor.
This flood will not be permanent. As water from reservoir will be dumped, water level will come back to normal.
IDK, may be week or so. So strategically it have no any sense, really. Sides was divided by river for months, and no any significant moves was done from either side. So nothing will happen if sides will have no any moves a week more.
No, because the bridges were already blown. So how are they bridging it. The banks have burst. It causes much greater difficulty, crossing a wider/widening river. The ground on the other side was also lower. One of the major factors for Russia withdrawal from Kherson, and the danger posed by this dam flooding Kherson and the lower ground.
I don't buy Western media, until something significant from Ukraine occurs. But Ukraine outside of their bigger disaster yesterday in the same region, are reportedly pushing down from Zaporizhzhia area. It is possible they were also going to attempt a counterflank from Kherson area crossing.
Now state the obvious advantages?
There is only one group of people who would concoct such a conniving plan.
No, because that won’t do anything. You can if you like. I don’t condone the destruction of any truth. It just doesn’t matter one iota.
Fyi they already tried a nuclear disaster. Remember when Russia was bombing a Ukraine nuclear plant. They said it was almost at critical, then I was under control, then there was no bombing, then there was no damage and no one knew what everyone was talking about.
In statistics we used to discuss monte carlo simulation.
I think it required trying to consider every possible variable and simulate how every variable or choice or decision or option effects an end result. Powerful computers required to calculate every possible variable. But if variables are infinite or there are not defined parameters then the calculation times out or the computer overloads itself trying to calculate it all.
Or to speak to Excel programmers, =if(If(if(if(if(if(if(if(if(if(if(if))))))))))))))))
How about “Ukraine has already used successfully HIMARS against the dam’s locks but ‘is hoping they won’t have to blow the whole thing’ as a last resort”? That should narrow the range of variables.