It is difficult to say was it really provided to crowd, or it is some military/police posing as protesters. Even if it was provided, it could be new clan who do it. And only real source of weapons could be only government. Kazakhstan have USSR-like border guard, so you can't just bring some weapons from abroad. And there was no any weaponized conflicts in Kasakhstan, so there are no any weapons that could left on hands after such conflict.
I could imagine that new clan have to somehow neutralise National Security that is under the control of old clan. To use police for NS neutralisation will be bad for the future of new clan, since nobody want to change the totalitarian regime itself. So, they slide that thing to "terrorists". "Terrorists" attack National Security, may be killing some top targets loyal to old clan, new clan "stops" "terrorists" attack, "saving" low-level National Security personnel, gaining their loyalty.
May be I'm wrong with that theory of clans change, but there was no any real noticeable opposition in Kazakhstan, or any noticeable foreing influence enough to start whats going on. Kazakhstan protests become a real surprize for all here, really. Many Russians have a relatives in Kazakhstan, especially in Northern part, so if there have been something growing, everybody here had know that. But there was nothing. Also, it is definitely is not the first time when fuel prices go up, and it was never a reason for anything except kitchen talks. Kazakhs also are not like some Middle-East or Caucasus muslims, they are more like Tatars muslims, not aggressive and not orthodox ones, with high addition of pagan and traditional belief, so it also could not be some religious thing guided by mullahs. So, with high probability it is something internal and government induced.
Without "foreign interference" it is impossible to ask for CSTO (NATO equivalent for ex-USSR countries) help, since this organisation, like NATO, intended to provide mutual protection of members in case of foreing intrusion. So, if they need CSTO forces for some reason (to defeat another clan, f.e.), they have to declare "foreing interference", whether it really exist or not. Also, since officials began to talk about "terrorists", it is definitely a spectacle. No "terrorism" exists except organised by government to take away more freedoms from people.
More interesting fact, that with 50% of Russians in Kazakhstan population, only Kazhakhs participate in all that thing. At least that is what you could get from photos/images. If that was something spontaneous and really based on something social or political, there would have been many Russians among protesters. From the other side, Russians can't belong to any Kazakh clan at all.
However, if there was really some "foreing interference", it is highly improbable that western masters of puppets will allow participation of Russians in their plans. Some time ago, they openly predated Navalny and his supporters in Russia, when it became obvious for them that it is absolutely possible that Russians could really overthrow Putin and his gang of thieves, and the new Russian government could become highly anti-NWO (that was in some Navalny messages, he occasionally told some anti-narrative things that he should not tell loud to keep western support). They immidiately discard all agreements with Russian opposition and allow Putin to supress any protests.
So, while absence of Russians among protesters gives no clue about existence of "foreing interference", it definitely shows that protests are orchestrated and completely unnatural.
For now that is all I could concluse from what I know about Kazakhstan protests.
I think your theory makes the most sense. By foreign influence i mean that it’s NATO influence for geopolitical benefits. Though more likely than this is internal politics. You offer convincing scenario for this
Seems plausible. So how does one clan prevent citizens from using weapons against them once it’s over? I suppose it’s possible that it’s state police disguised as citizens
So how does one clan prevent citizens from using weapons against them once it’s over?
They don't need to. Jail time for illegal gun is very high in Russia/Belarus/Kazakhstan, so that guns will be returned fast. In any case it is not enough guns to do something really harmful. And you, obviously, need ammo for guns. Ammo is highly regulated too, and there is a jail penalty even for owning single shell without license. Shells often used by police to press/racket people, they plant a shell to your pocket, "find" it and then treaten to throw you to jail.
Will see, what's really going on, if everything will be finished in few days without any real changes in political system, that will mean that it was just internal power shift.
It is difficult to say was it really provided to crowd, or it is some military/police posing as protesters. Even if it was provided, it could be new clan who do it. And only real source of weapons could be only government. Kazakhstan have USSR-like border guard, so you can't just bring some weapons from abroad. And there was no any weaponized conflicts in Kasakhstan, so there are no any weapons that could left on hands after such conflict.
I could imagine that new clan have to somehow neutralise National Security that is under the control of old clan. To use police for NS neutralisation will be bad for the future of new clan, since nobody want to change the totalitarian regime itself. So, they slide that thing to "terrorists". "Terrorists" attack National Security, may be killing some top targets loyal to old clan, new clan "stops" "terrorists" attack, "saving" low-level National Security personnel, gaining their loyalty.
May be I'm wrong with that theory of clans change, but there was no any real noticeable opposition in Kazakhstan, or any noticeable foreing influence enough to start whats going on. Kazakhstan protests become a real surprize for all here, really. Many Russians have a relatives in Kazakhstan, especially in Northern part, so if there have been something growing, everybody here had know that. But there was nothing. Also, it is definitely is not the first time when fuel prices go up, and it was never a reason for anything except kitchen talks. Kazakhs also are not like some Middle-East or Caucasus muslims, they are more like Tatars muslims, not aggressive and not orthodox ones, with high addition of pagan and traditional belief, so it also could not be some religious thing guided by mullahs. So, with high probability it is something internal and government induced.
ZH presenting some evidence of foreign interference though it is essentially hearsay
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dozens-killed-kazakh-police-battle-control-streets-war-zone-banks-being-looted
Without "foreign interference" it is impossible to ask for CSTO (NATO equivalent for ex-USSR countries) help, since this organisation, like NATO, intended to provide mutual protection of members in case of foreing intrusion. So, if they need CSTO forces for some reason (to defeat another clan, f.e.), they have to declare "foreing interference", whether it really exist or not. Also, since officials began to talk about "terrorists", it is definitely a spectacle. No "terrorism" exists except organised by government to take away more freedoms from people.
More interesting fact, that with 50% of Russians in Kazakhstan population, only Kazhakhs participate in all that thing. At least that is what you could get from photos/images. If that was something spontaneous and really based on something social or political, there would have been many Russians among protesters. From the other side, Russians can't belong to any Kazakh clan at all.
However, if there was really some "foreing interference", it is highly improbable that western masters of puppets will allow participation of Russians in their plans. Some time ago, they openly predated Navalny and his supporters in Russia, when it became obvious for them that it is absolutely possible that Russians could really overthrow Putin and his gang of thieves, and the new Russian government could become highly anti-NWO (that was in some Navalny messages, he occasionally told some anti-narrative things that he should not tell loud to keep western support). They immidiately discard all agreements with Russian opposition and allow Putin to supress any protests.
So, while absence of Russians among protesters gives no clue about existence of "foreing interference", it definitely shows that protests are orchestrated and completely unnatural.
For now that is all I could concluse from what I know about Kazakhstan protests.
I think your theory makes the most sense. By foreign influence i mean that it’s NATO influence for geopolitical benefits. Though more likely than this is internal politics. You offer convincing scenario for this
Seems plausible. So how does one clan prevent citizens from using weapons against them once it’s over? I suppose it’s possible that it’s state police disguised as citizens
They don't need to. Jail time for illegal gun is very high in Russia/Belarus/Kazakhstan, so that guns will be returned fast. In any case it is not enough guns to do something really harmful. And you, obviously, need ammo for guns. Ammo is highly regulated too, and there is a jail penalty even for owning single shell without license. Shells often used by police to press/racket people, they plant a shell to your pocket, "find" it and then treaten to throw you to jail.
Will see, what's really going on, if everything will be finished in few days without any real changes in political system, that will mean that it was just internal power shift.
Is this what the RATM pocket full of shells song is about?