posted ago by CrazyRussian ago by CrazyRussian +9 / -0

I think that current state of computer technology and a way it used today is more than enough to predict almost everything in economy with high precision.

Imagine a situation when whole society of some planet is just 10 creatures. They produce some commodities and services, exchange them for money, lend and borrow money with interest, trade and so on. Exactly like on Earth, but just 10 creatures.

10 creatures living together will perfectly know nearly everything about each other. From amount of money each have to the needs and priorities. So, it is not hard to calculate exact next state of economy. If you know that some commodity everybody need is in short supply (and you obviously know by what exact amount), and know how much everyone can afford to spend on this commodity, then you will know exact price of that commodity for the next round of economy cycle. You could calculate anything about such economy of 10 creatures.

Now look at what banks, corporations and so on know about people. They know how much money we have, what our needs and preferences are, how often we buy one or another thing, even what we wish to buy, how many we are ready to spend for that thing and when we will have enough money to implement our wish. They know everything they need to predict next economy state with great precision.

More than enough processing power is in hands of corporations to make exact predictions on almost anything in economy and even account for politics fashion, flu season, and all that stuff. And looks like they really do that 24/7, including creating next stupid obsession with yet another gadget or toy, or rising or lowering prices beforehand any change in demand or supply. They do their planning way wider and better than Soviet Gosplan. Those of us who resist all that surveillance, use cash and so on are low in numbers to noticeably skew their calculations.

This inevitably will end in exact predictions of stock exchange trade.

But somehow stock exchange trade is unpredictable.

There could be at least two explanations.

One is that corporations for whatever reason do not interfere in stock exchange gambling. But this looks questionable, because corporations spend billions for all that HFT, trading algorithms and so on, like they are really don't know what's going on. This is the reason I think unpredictability of stock exchange is not a lie for public to cover planned milking of casual "investors" from regular people. If they know everything beforehand, then why spend a lot of money and effort in attempts to create trading oracle?

Second explanation is that stock exchange prices is artificially manipulated by some other force that is a kind of rival for corporations. IDK, may be some "old families" or, say, government.

Weird thing is that there is "free trade" for them and at the same time perfectly calculated and planned consumerism for us. The latter make the former senseless.