Market Crash Prediction (some guy on Twitter)
(twitter.com)
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People have been predicting a market crash to be imminent for decades.
Without the Fed finding ways to kick the can down the road they all would have been right. The question to ask now is, "Does the Fed have anything left to deploy to keep that can rolling down the street?" The answer is yes if they want more inflation, no if they're trying to keep inflation in check. Basically.
And if my grandma had wheels she'd be a bicyle.
What are your thoughts on a big (2008 or worse) market crash coming? I feel like everyone is still FOMO, and it's a matter of weeks (or less) before a big crash in equity values, with high unemployment numbers and a lot of insolvency to follow. I don't understand why nobody seems to think it can happen again.
thats the second time i heard FOMO today...
They did a big one in 08 and another big one in 20.
I'd need something more than a couple colored squiggles to believe we're getting one in 23/24. Usually the big ones are a little over a decade apart.
I think of 2020's crash as an out of band crash, and it was really temporary, like the 2006 "flash crash", which preceded the 2008 crash by 28 months.
What preceded the 1987 crash by 28 months? Was there a flash back then as well? Sorry for the dumb question.
I don't know. I'm only illustrating the point that a move, especially one catalyzed by a short term event (COVID lockdowns / fear of long term lockdowns), which is quickly reversed, doesn't have the market-correcting effects that a larger, protracted crash, like 2008, does.
The other thing worth mentioning is that the S&P crashed 58% traumatize in the 2008 crash, while the 2020 move only took the S&P down 36% and for a short period.
Another thing worth noting is that the 1987 crash was actually pretty similar to the 2006 crash, in the sense that it was more of a sudden technical trading disaster, as opposed to a protracted downturn in the markets. In fact, when you look back at a chart (below) from 1975 to the present era, 1987 is just a little blip on the radar.
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ii33tZfYl_M/UIjPC5GmG5I/AAAAAAAAAhg/0mcva-nR0Fg/s1600/SNP500_1975_to_Oct2012_Annotated_Techfarm.jpg
It has already crashed. Crashes occur differently today.
You mean a big yuge crash where there's no money in the bank and then there's no food on the shelves and no gas at the pumps.
Yea that'll work for China, it'll work even better for Russia. It can still happen but larger war is almost easier.
The population what do you think they do? They will become communists and zombies. But they'll burn it to the ground as they'll set up guillotines and lynching posts and pillories then they'll get medieval. If they aren't shot. Seriously. War is easier
It has crashed way worse than 2008. Look at the price.