Odds of it?
(www.axios.com)
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By what metric?
What, nukes? They exist. The threat of using them? 100% bullshit. You’re watching a stage play. People are literally reading from scripts. There are no independent players anywhere in the world.
By the factor, odds, of a Nuclear power won't lose at home? It has nukes. So it uses them tactically in response to direct attacks on it.
Does the other side arming respond conventionally. Now it's fully committed into those above odds. Bravo.
You're suggesting. What? Russia loses, or doesn't defend its nation. Those territories are Russia. Above odds, of defending them, rising, become tactical. If a surrender occurs, it is faster back to their build up, but any odds have increased.
No, it's not a script if it's a high stakes game of name it. It's not a bluff if it's committed.