All that stupid sanctions, really, do much more harm to the West, than to Russia. And that is obviously intentional.
Pretty much. The question is - to what end? Sure enough, Russia is already increasing raw resource trade with China and India, though I'm not sure what's the situation with consumer goods. I wouldn't be surprised if Chinese manufacturers of ostensibly western brands, have simply ignored the ban on exports to Russian outlets. Overall, I'm not expecting a major shakeup on Russian markets.
In the west, however, there's already talk of goods shortages, from wheat to sunflower oil. I suspect this precipitates a planned restructuring of the economy - an expansion of mining and farming jobs, in order to achieve at least some self-sufficiency for the EU and certain NATO countries. After all, oligarchs like Bill Gates have been buying up farmland like there's no tomorrow, and they tend to be pretty good bellwethers in that regard. And wouldn't you know it - the past decade saw an influx of unskilled migrants, good for just this sort of thing. Amazing coincidence, I know.
Altogether, this whole conflict seems to function like a not-quite-amicable economic divorce - an unsurprising, likely even necessary measure after the financial crisis that marked the past decade.
Russia is already increasing raw resource trade with China and India,
Seems so. At least they announce new contracts an deals.
though I'm not sure what's the situation with consumer goods.
That is interesting. Say, I like good tools. I will never deny buying some wrench set from Snap-on or a good drill from DeWalt. But everything I could find from solid brands known in the past as reliable and cool tools is made in China. You will not find anything made in USA or Germany anymore.
From the other side, if you buy a obvious China noname tool in closest hardware store, it will be complete shit.
But if you take sometime and search for that tools on aliexpress, f.e. you could find a pretty decent stuff like hand drills with steel gears reliable motors and damn good ergonomics. It will not be cheap as usual China noname crap, but it will not be as expensive as Western brands made in China. You will even don't find any latin labels on the tools, but it will be definitely not worse than modern tools by known brands.
The same thing is with other consumer product. If you are buying things, not brand labels you don't really need Western stuff that will be made in China too.
I wouldn't be surprised if Chinese manufacturers of ostensibly western brands, have simply ignored the ban on exports to Russian outlets.
They now do better. Say, not very expensive DeWalt hand drill have plastic gears and PVC cord, as specified by DeWalt, but Chineese do nearly same model with minor changes in outlook, but with metal gears and rubber cord (rubber does not harden in cold as much as PVC), just like DeWalt do few decades ago. And sell that for the price sligtly lower than that DeWalt drill. I don't know, may be such goods that made like oldstyle brand ones is restricted in the West due to corporations lobby, patents or other stuff, but here you could buy them without limitations.
Overall, I'm not expecting a major shakeup on Russian markets.
If Russia was allowed to develop high tech, that shakeup would have been possible. Yes, there will be problems with spare parts for heavy Western factory equipment, but that will not be critical. Factories will just began make that parts for themselves, not giving a fuck to any warranty or patents or order them in China/India. Again, Western companies will lose significant money they earn on spare parts and service, and that's all. And that could cause a reborn of heavy machinery repair industry in Russia, so that Western companies will never get back to that business.
Intersting that USA already dropped sanctions on telecom equipment for Russia. The rare thing that could really noticeable harm Russian telecom industry, since most plaers in telecom still prefer Western equipment and don't like that Huawei and other Chineese stuff.
So, as you mention
Altogether, this whole conflict seems to function like a not-quite-amicable economic divorce - an unsurprising, likely even necessary measure after the financial crisis that marked the past decade.
Yep. It is all stacking one by one in the attempt to create that crisis. And seems that it is not a real divorce, it looks like fake divorce for public to achieve some murky goals but in completely controlled manner.
I agree on the matter of Chinese-made goods. From my interactions with Chinese expats, it appears there are two tiers of Chinese goods - the cheap crap sold for decades to foreign companies, and the decent and still affordable stuff meant for local use, which is now expanding abroad. So in that regard, the manufactured goods markets in its major trading partners wouldn't be severely affected. And vice versa, the growing economies of both China and India will be more than happy to welcome the excess Russian gas if the import restrictions of the EU become permanent. And the overall global economy seems to hold up for another day... for now.
Russian factories don't have the capacity or know-how to produce everything they import from the West.
Everything is not necessary to continue to use Western equipment. Only things that wear. And it is not a rocket science at all.
If it was as easy as "just begin making the parts for themselves", every country would just do it.
It was easier to pay than to make. That is why machinig industry in Russia degraded. Now it could be restored. It is even better than to pay again. Self-sufficiency is a cool thing, if you are not aware. On any level, from personal to country.
Do you know that Earth is absolutely self-sufficient? Account that like some Galaxy government totally sanctioned Earth. Not great, but definitely not an end of life.
Pretty much. The question is - to what end? Sure enough, Russia is already increasing raw resource trade with China and India, though I'm not sure what's the situation with consumer goods. I wouldn't be surprised if Chinese manufacturers of ostensibly western brands, have simply ignored the ban on exports to Russian outlets. Overall, I'm not expecting a major shakeup on Russian markets.
In the west, however, there's already talk of goods shortages, from wheat to sunflower oil. I suspect this precipitates a planned restructuring of the economy - an expansion of mining and farming jobs, in order to achieve at least some self-sufficiency for the EU and certain NATO countries. After all, oligarchs like Bill Gates have been buying up farmland like there's no tomorrow, and they tend to be pretty good bellwethers in that regard. And wouldn't you know it - the past decade saw an influx of unskilled migrants, good for just this sort of thing. Amazing coincidence, I know.
Altogether, this whole conflict seems to function like a not-quite-amicable economic divorce - an unsurprising, likely even necessary measure after the financial crisis that marked the past decade.
Seems so. At least they announce new contracts an deals.
That is interesting. Say, I like good tools. I will never deny buying some wrench set from Snap-on or a good drill from DeWalt. But everything I could find from solid brands known in the past as reliable and cool tools is made in China. You will not find anything made in USA or Germany anymore. From the other side, if you buy a obvious China noname tool in closest hardware store, it will be complete shit. But if you take sometime and search for that tools on aliexpress, f.e. you could find a pretty decent stuff like hand drills with steel gears reliable motors and damn good ergonomics. It will not be cheap as usual China noname crap, but it will not be as expensive as Western brands made in China. You will even don't find any latin labels on the tools, but it will be definitely not worse than modern tools by known brands.
The same thing is with other consumer product. If you are buying things, not brand labels you don't really need Western stuff that will be made in China too.
They now do better. Say, not very expensive DeWalt hand drill have plastic gears and PVC cord, as specified by DeWalt, but Chineese do nearly same model with minor changes in outlook, but with metal gears and rubber cord (rubber does not harden in cold as much as PVC), just like DeWalt do few decades ago. And sell that for the price sligtly lower than that DeWalt drill. I don't know, may be such goods that made like oldstyle brand ones is restricted in the West due to corporations lobby, patents or other stuff, but here you could buy them without limitations.
If Russia was allowed to develop high tech, that shakeup would have been possible. Yes, there will be problems with spare parts for heavy Western factory equipment, but that will not be critical. Factories will just began make that parts for themselves, not giving a fuck to any warranty or patents or order them in China/India. Again, Western companies will lose significant money they earn on spare parts and service, and that's all. And that could cause a reborn of heavy machinery repair industry in Russia, so that Western companies will never get back to that business.
Intersting that USA already dropped sanctions on telecom equipment for Russia. The rare thing that could really noticeable harm Russian telecom industry, since most plaers in telecom still prefer Western equipment and don't like that Huawei and other Chineese stuff.
So, as you mention
Yep. It is all stacking one by one in the attempt to create that crisis. And seems that it is not a real divorce, it looks like fake divorce for public to achieve some murky goals but in completely controlled manner.
I agree on the matter of Chinese-made goods. From my interactions with Chinese expats, it appears there are two tiers of Chinese goods - the cheap crap sold for decades to foreign companies, and the decent and still affordable stuff meant for local use, which is now expanding abroad. So in that regard, the manufactured goods markets in its major trading partners wouldn't be severely affected. And vice versa, the growing economies of both China and India will be more than happy to welcome the excess Russian gas if the import restrictions of the EU become permanent. And the overall global economy seems to hold up for another day... for now.
Everything is not necessary to continue to use Western equipment. Only things that wear. And it is not a rocket science at all.
It was easier to pay than to make. That is why machinig industry in Russia degraded. Now it could be restored. It is even better than to pay again. Self-sufficiency is a cool thing, if you are not aware. On any level, from personal to country.
Do you know that Earth is absolutely self-sufficient? Account that like some Galaxy government totally sanctioned Earth. Not great, but definitely not an end of life.