Technical default is not the same as usual default.
technical default: You own somebody $100. You have them and want to pay. But the recipient of your payment deny it and then say that it is you who didn't pay him debt.
regular default: You own somebody $100. You don't have them. Recipient does not receive them and say you didn't pay him debt.
Thing named "technical default" is the favorite trick of racketeers and usurers. They wait for the day of payments, and when the victim bring the money, he discovers that racketeer or usurer is absent or somehow can't take victims money for whatever reason. Later, criminal suddenly appear and blame victim for delay of payment, so victim now have to pay additional interest rate and huge penalty for that delay.
As for the situation with Russia, that "technical default" is do more harm for the payment receivers (investors, banks, all of them) than for those who have to pay. It does not even destroy credibility of Russia for any sane person, it destroys credibility of the West. Say, India or some other country will look at that and hardly will want to have a deal with investors or states who could at any time do that shitty racketeer trick with them. Why would they want to have a deal with such unsafe partners?
All that stupid sanctions, really, do much more harm to the West, than to Russia. And that is obviously intentional. Interesting, that West even already drop sanctions that could occasionally really harm Russia a little - the US government recently allowed selling high-speed communication and IT equipment to Russia, f.e..
So, sanctions West apply to Russia harm West population, not Russians, I.e. West do exactly what was tested by NWO in Russia previously. Russians use meme "we will bomb Voronezh to sanction West", i.e.do harm to its own citizens in own town as a punishment for foreing state. That was done numerous times from "sanctioning western food and goods" to "censorship of foreign MSM" as a reply to some anti-Russia actions of the West.. Now West do exactly the same, since NWO tested and approved that technology. The difference only in that Russians don't give a fuck to government bans and continue to trade and use banned things, but West public much more obedient to state laws and bans and will follow them even if they will suffer. It was clearly visible, f.e. during coronahoax lockdowns. Both West and Russia had them, but in Russia most people don't give a fuck to that shit, unlike Western people who mostly obey under the fear of large penalies or arrests.
All that stupid sanctions, really, do much more harm to the West, than to Russia. And that is obviously intentional.
Pretty much. The question is - to what end? Sure enough, Russia is already increasing raw resource trade with China and India, though I'm not sure what's the situation with consumer goods. I wouldn't be surprised if Chinese manufacturers of ostensibly western brands, have simply ignored the ban on exports to Russian outlets. Overall, I'm not expecting a major shakeup on Russian markets.
In the west, however, there's already talk of goods shortages, from wheat to sunflower oil. I suspect this precipitates a planned restructuring of the economy - an expansion of mining and farming jobs, in order to achieve at least some self-sufficiency for the EU and certain NATO countries. After all, oligarchs like Bill Gates have been buying up farmland like there's no tomorrow, and they tend to be pretty good bellwethers in that regard. And wouldn't you know it - the past decade saw an influx of unskilled migrants, good for just this sort of thing. Amazing coincidence, I know.
Altogether, this whole conflict seems to function like a not-quite-amicable economic divorce - an unsurprising, likely even necessary measure after the financial crisis that marked the past decade.
Russia is already increasing raw resource trade with China and India,
Seems so. At least they announce new contracts an deals.
though I'm not sure what's the situation with consumer goods.
That is interesting. Say, I like good tools. I will never deny buying some wrench set from Snap-on or a good drill from DeWalt. But everything I could find from solid brands known in the past as reliable and cool tools is made in China. You will not find anything made in USA or Germany anymore.
From the other side, if you buy a obvious China noname tool in closest hardware store, it will be complete shit.
But if you take sometime and search for that tools on aliexpress, f.e. you could find a pretty decent stuff like hand drills with steel gears reliable motors and damn good ergonomics. It will not be cheap as usual China noname crap, but it will not be as expensive as Western brands made in China. You will even don't find any latin labels on the tools, but it will be definitely not worse than modern tools by known brands.
The same thing is with other consumer product. If you are buying things, not brand labels you don't really need Western stuff that will be made in China too.
I wouldn't be surprised if Chinese manufacturers of ostensibly western brands, have simply ignored the ban on exports to Russian outlets.
They now do better. Say, not very expensive DeWalt hand drill have plastic gears and PVC cord, as specified by DeWalt, but Chineese do nearly same model with minor changes in outlook, but with metal gears and rubber cord (rubber does not harden in cold as much as PVC), just like DeWalt do few decades ago. And sell that for the price sligtly lower than that DeWalt drill. I don't know, may be such goods that made like oldstyle brand ones is restricted in the West due to corporations lobby, patents or other stuff, but here you could buy them without limitations.
Overall, I'm not expecting a major shakeup on Russian markets.
If Russia was allowed to develop high tech, that shakeup would have been possible. Yes, there will be problems with spare parts for heavy Western factory equipment, but that will not be critical. Factories will just began make that parts for themselves, not giving a fuck to any warranty or patents or order them in China/India. Again, Western companies will lose significant money they earn on spare parts and service, and that's all. And that could cause a reborn of heavy machinery repair industry in Russia, so that Western companies will never get back to that business.
Intersting that USA already dropped sanctions on telecom equipment for Russia. The rare thing that could really noticeable harm Russian telecom industry, since most plaers in telecom still prefer Western equipment and don't like that Huawei and other Chineese stuff.
So, as you mention
Altogether, this whole conflict seems to function like a not-quite-amicable economic divorce - an unsurprising, likely even necessary measure after the financial crisis that marked the past decade.
Yep. It is all stacking one by one in the attempt to create that crisis. And seems that it is not a real divorce, it looks like fake divorce for public to achieve some murky goals but in completely controlled manner.
I agree on the matter of Chinese-made goods. From my interactions with Chinese expats, it appears there are two tiers of Chinese goods - the cheap crap sold for decades to foreign companies, and the decent and still affordable stuff meant for local use, which is now expanding abroad. So in that regard, the manufactured goods markets in its major trading partners wouldn't be severely affected. And vice versa, the growing economies of both China and India will be more than happy to welcome the excess Russian gas if the import restrictions of the EU become permanent. And the overall global economy seems to hold up for another day... for now.
Russian factories don't have the capacity or know-how to produce everything they import from the West.
Everything is not necessary to continue to use Western equipment. Only things that wear. And it is not a rocket science at all.
If it was as easy as "just begin making the parts for themselves", every country would just do it.
It was easier to pay than to make. That is why machinig industry in Russia degraded. Now it could be restored. It is even better than to pay again. Self-sufficiency is a cool thing, if you are not aware. On any level, from personal to country.
Do you know that Earth is absolutely self-sufficient? Account that like some Galaxy government totally sanctioned Earth. Not great, but definitely not an end of life.
Russia wants to pay in Rubble but those are not the conditions of the loan.
You heard some noise, but have no any clue.
Some Russian entity wants to pay as usual in USD/EUR. But USD/EUR transfers from Russia are prohibited for the receiving side for whatever reason and definitely not by Russia. Russian entity says - OK, not a problem, if you can't accept USD/EUR, we could pay in RUB if you wish. And that's all.
And the link to the loan condition is completely void. Every single contract have a force-majeure section. That situation, when loan payment is impossible due to any circumstances that not depends on the paying party including different government orders and state laws that did not existed at the moment of signing a deal, is definitely fall into force-majeure section, so both parties have to find other ways to complete the deal. So Russian entity just propose a way to circumvent force-majeure - if you can't accept USD/EUR, may be you can accept RUB, because there is nothing in state law about RUB at all and you can't be punished for that. There is nothing to do even with "technical default". But if the receiver of payment deny any of your proposals and insist on paying in USD/EUR he can't receive, that could be a court case from the Russian entity side.
It's like I take a loan of $100 from you, and when it come to the loan payment your USD bank account was seized by state for not wearing the mask or some mindcrime. So, I have $100 to pay you, but you can't take it because now you have no account to receive payments - your government seized it and it is even not your fault. It is a force-majeure situation and either you propose a solution, either I could propose to return that loan in bitcoins to avoid seizure. If you have no way to accept my USD/EUR payment but insist on paying you in USD/EUR, that is my "technical default", but your swindle or attempt to do a "racketeer trick". And in no case that situation do any harm for me, since I lost nothing and did everything I could in force-majeure situation, it is just a loss of any of your credibility as a capable deal party.
Or simplier example - you took a loan in a bank, bought what you need, earn enough money to pay it to the date and when you come to the bank it can't accept your money because there are no electricity in the bank and they can't close the deal. This is your "technical default". And if the bank then will blame you for payment delay, then it will be a court case that you will easily win even in corrupted Russia.
Good luck trying to envoke that one. Remember why there are sanctions?
Definitely not because some Gazprom or other economical entity invade Ukraine. And it does not matter. It is not a Russian entity paying loan or dividents breaking contract. It is the other part who decline to take that payment.
I think it will just end with that in all future contracts will be a special section about refusing to accept a payment and sanctions for the receiving party for that, and that's all.
Russia could have just NOT invaded Ukraine and none of these problems would even exist.
Ukraine could just make Russian language (at minimum 50% of Ukrainian citizens are Russian-speaking) as second state language and that whole situation would have been impossible from the beginning. Ukraine still would have the Crimea and there woud have been no any DPR/LNR at all. And would have excellent relations with both West and Russia for Ukraine profit and wealth. Somebody forced Ukraine to press Russian-speaking citizens? Who could that be, let me think a little... Wasn't that all that Western advisors and mentors who pushed that stupid narrative from the beginning? So, they got what they want and now punishing their own population for that stupidity.
Oh, wait, that was their goal from the beginning as for all that fucking climate change crap, WEF narratives, Agenda 2030 and so on. They have "democracy", right? So they can't just fuck their people as they do it in Russia or China. They need an excuse. Coronahoax was perfect, but after 2 years even sheeple don't give a fuck to that shit. They need something more stable. Barbarian Russians attacking that innocent Ukraine as usual a perfect excuse for food vouchers and cold houses in democratic West.
But all in all that is not a reason for anything about Russian-Western contracts. It is Western parties who deny to accept payments, not Russan parties who don't want to pay. Case closed.
Remember when Russia claimed that the sanctions would not have any effect on them? Well, how did that one work out do far?
So, tell me what effect should be. I'll take a look.
Yes, McDonald's and probably KFC are closed. But, let me think... That's excellent! I'm really glad that my people will eat less junk food.
What else?
The problem with sanctions on self-sufficient country like Russia is that after some threshold, that sanctions will stop doing harm to that country and began to harm sanctioners.
If the West really want to destroy Russia, they have to choose completely another strategy. F.e. completely destroy all that coronahoax crap they build, punish everybody who particiate, establish laws that will make such things impossible in future, return to real freedom and democracy without any stupid modern limitations and open borders for any educated Russian without any paywalls with that insane >$200k for unconditional residence permit. Grant easy citizenship for them. Russia will disappear in months. Easy and cost absolutely nothing for the West. And West will become whiter and get a decent rise in tax-paying working and useful population.
But that is not what they want. They need a scarecrow to permanently FUD their own citizens and fuck them in the name of never happening victory over barbarian us.
Looking form a side, I think Russians have better chances to survive in that game. And not Russia, as a state headed by obvious NWO shills, but Russians as etnicity and a territory where we live. White Americans too, it is hard to believe, but we are much closer than everybody think. But Europeans... they are good people, but trust their governments too much.
I will enjoy the shitshow of Russia's economy collapsing.
You'll have to wait forever.
It is impossible to collapse economy of country that really needs import nothing from abroad to stay alive. Especially with all that stupid sanctions. It is not the West necessary for Russia to keep running, it is Russia is necessary to the West to survive. And that situation was carefully made by West itself. From brainless switching to the Russian resources stolen by Jewish oligarchs from Russians to destroyng working nuclear power plants for the sake of stupid ecologyhoax.
Technical default is not the same as usual default.
technical default: You own somebody $100. You have them and want to pay. But the recipient of your payment deny it and then say that it is you who didn't pay him debt.
regular default: You own somebody $100. You don't have them. Recipient does not receive them and say you didn't pay him debt.
Thing named "technical default" is the favorite trick of racketeers and usurers. They wait for the day of payments, and when the victim bring the money, he discovers that racketeer or usurer is absent or somehow can't take victims money for whatever reason. Later, criminal suddenly appear and blame victim for delay of payment, so victim now have to pay additional interest rate and huge penalty for that delay.
As for the situation with Russia, that "technical default" is do more harm for the payment receivers (investors, banks, all of them) than for those who have to pay. It does not even destroy credibility of Russia for any sane person, it destroys credibility of the West. Say, India or some other country will look at that and hardly will want to have a deal with investors or states who could at any time do that shitty racketeer trick with them. Why would they want to have a deal with such unsafe partners?
All that stupid sanctions, really, do much more harm to the West, than to Russia. And that is obviously intentional. Interesting, that West even already drop sanctions that could occasionally really harm Russia a little - the US government recently allowed selling high-speed communication and IT equipment to Russia, f.e..
So, sanctions West apply to Russia harm West population, not Russians, I.e. West do exactly what was tested by NWO in Russia previously. Russians use meme "we will bomb Voronezh to sanction West", i.e.do harm to its own citizens in own town as a punishment for foreing state. That was done numerous times from "sanctioning western food and goods" to "censorship of foreign MSM" as a reply to some anti-Russia actions of the West.. Now West do exactly the same, since NWO tested and approved that technology. The difference only in that Russians don't give a fuck to government bans and continue to trade and use banned things, but West public much more obedient to state laws and bans and will follow them even if they will suffer. It was clearly visible, f.e. during coronahoax lockdowns. Both West and Russia had them, but in Russia most people don't give a fuck to that shit, unlike Western people who mostly obey under the fear of large penalies or arrests.
Pretty much. The question is - to what end? Sure enough, Russia is already increasing raw resource trade with China and India, though I'm not sure what's the situation with consumer goods. I wouldn't be surprised if Chinese manufacturers of ostensibly western brands, have simply ignored the ban on exports to Russian outlets. Overall, I'm not expecting a major shakeup on Russian markets.
In the west, however, there's already talk of goods shortages, from wheat to sunflower oil. I suspect this precipitates a planned restructuring of the economy - an expansion of mining and farming jobs, in order to achieve at least some self-sufficiency for the EU and certain NATO countries. After all, oligarchs like Bill Gates have been buying up farmland like there's no tomorrow, and they tend to be pretty good bellwethers in that regard. And wouldn't you know it - the past decade saw an influx of unskilled migrants, good for just this sort of thing. Amazing coincidence, I know.
Altogether, this whole conflict seems to function like a not-quite-amicable economic divorce - an unsurprising, likely even necessary measure after the financial crisis that marked the past decade.
Seems so. At least they announce new contracts an deals.
That is interesting. Say, I like good tools. I will never deny buying some wrench set from Snap-on or a good drill from DeWalt. But everything I could find from solid brands known in the past as reliable and cool tools is made in China. You will not find anything made in USA or Germany anymore. From the other side, if you buy a obvious China noname tool in closest hardware store, it will be complete shit. But if you take sometime and search for that tools on aliexpress, f.e. you could find a pretty decent stuff like hand drills with steel gears reliable motors and damn good ergonomics. It will not be cheap as usual China noname crap, but it will not be as expensive as Western brands made in China. You will even don't find any latin labels on the tools, but it will be definitely not worse than modern tools by known brands.
The same thing is with other consumer product. If you are buying things, not brand labels you don't really need Western stuff that will be made in China too.
They now do better. Say, not very expensive DeWalt hand drill have plastic gears and PVC cord, as specified by DeWalt, but Chineese do nearly same model with minor changes in outlook, but with metal gears and rubber cord (rubber does not harden in cold as much as PVC), just like DeWalt do few decades ago. And sell that for the price sligtly lower than that DeWalt drill. I don't know, may be such goods that made like oldstyle brand ones is restricted in the West due to corporations lobby, patents or other stuff, but here you could buy them without limitations.
If Russia was allowed to develop high tech, that shakeup would have been possible. Yes, there will be problems with spare parts for heavy Western factory equipment, but that will not be critical. Factories will just began make that parts for themselves, not giving a fuck to any warranty or patents or order them in China/India. Again, Western companies will lose significant money they earn on spare parts and service, and that's all. And that could cause a reborn of heavy machinery repair industry in Russia, so that Western companies will never get back to that business.
Intersting that USA already dropped sanctions on telecom equipment for Russia. The rare thing that could really noticeable harm Russian telecom industry, since most plaers in telecom still prefer Western equipment and don't like that Huawei and other Chineese stuff.
So, as you mention
Yep. It is all stacking one by one in the attempt to create that crisis. And seems that it is not a real divorce, it looks like fake divorce for public to achieve some murky goals but in completely controlled manner.
I agree on the matter of Chinese-made goods. From my interactions with Chinese expats, it appears there are two tiers of Chinese goods - the cheap crap sold for decades to foreign companies, and the decent and still affordable stuff meant for local use, which is now expanding abroad. So in that regard, the manufactured goods markets in its major trading partners wouldn't be severely affected. And vice versa, the growing economies of both China and India will be more than happy to welcome the excess Russian gas if the import restrictions of the EU become permanent. And the overall global economy seems to hold up for another day... for now.
Everything is not necessary to continue to use Western equipment. Only things that wear. And it is not a rocket science at all.
It was easier to pay than to make. That is why machinig industry in Russia degraded. Now it could be restored. It is even better than to pay again. Self-sufficiency is a cool thing, if you are not aware. On any level, from personal to country.
Do you know that Earth is absolutely self-sufficient? Account that like some Galaxy government totally sanctioned Earth. Not great, but definitely not an end of life.
You heard some noise, but have no any clue. Some Russian entity wants to pay as usual in USD/EUR. But USD/EUR transfers from Russia are prohibited for the receiving side for whatever reason and definitely not by Russia. Russian entity says - OK, not a problem, if you can't accept USD/EUR, we could pay in RUB if you wish. And that's all.
And the link to the loan condition is completely void. Every single contract have a force-majeure section. That situation, when loan payment is impossible due to any circumstances that not depends on the paying party including different government orders and state laws that did not existed at the moment of signing a deal, is definitely fall into force-majeure section, so both parties have to find other ways to complete the deal. So Russian entity just propose a way to circumvent force-majeure - if you can't accept USD/EUR, may be you can accept RUB, because there is nothing in state law about RUB at all and you can't be punished for that. There is nothing to do even with "technical default". But if the receiver of payment deny any of your proposals and insist on paying in USD/EUR he can't receive, that could be a court case from the Russian entity side.
It's like I take a loan of $100 from you, and when it come to the loan payment your USD bank account was seized by state for not wearing the mask or some mindcrime. So, I have $100 to pay you, but you can't take it because now you have no account to receive payments - your government seized it and it is even not your fault. It is a force-majeure situation and either you propose a solution, either I could propose to return that loan in bitcoins to avoid seizure. If you have no way to accept my USD/EUR payment but insist on paying you in USD/EUR, that is my "technical default", but your swindle or attempt to do a "racketeer trick". And in no case that situation do any harm for me, since I lost nothing and did everything I could in force-majeure situation, it is just a loss of any of your credibility as a capable deal party.
Or simplier example - you took a loan in a bank, bought what you need, earn enough money to pay it to the date and when you come to the bank it can't accept your money because there are no electricity in the bank and they can't close the deal. This is your "technical default". And if the bank then will blame you for payment delay, then it will be a court case that you will easily win even in corrupted Russia.
Definitely not because some Gazprom or other economical entity invade Ukraine. And it does not matter. It is not a Russian entity paying loan or dividents breaking contract. It is the other part who decline to take that payment.
I think it will just end with that in all future contracts will be a special section about refusing to accept a payment and sanctions for the receiving party for that, and that's all.
Ukraine could just make Russian language (at minimum 50% of Ukrainian citizens are Russian-speaking) as second state language and that whole situation would have been impossible from the beginning. Ukraine still would have the Crimea and there woud have been no any DPR/LNR at all. And would have excellent relations with both West and Russia for Ukraine profit and wealth. Somebody forced Ukraine to press Russian-speaking citizens? Who could that be, let me think a little... Wasn't that all that Western advisors and mentors who pushed that stupid narrative from the beginning? So, they got what they want and now punishing their own population for that stupidity.
Oh, wait, that was their goal from the beginning as for all that fucking climate change crap, WEF narratives, Agenda 2030 and so on. They have "democracy", right? So they can't just fuck their people as they do it in Russia or China. They need an excuse. Coronahoax was perfect, but after 2 years even sheeple don't give a fuck to that shit. They need something more stable. Barbarian Russians attacking that innocent Ukraine as usual a perfect excuse for food vouchers and cold houses in democratic West.
But all in all that is not a reason for anything about Russian-Western contracts. It is Western parties who deny to accept payments, not Russan parties who don't want to pay. Case closed.
So, tell me what effect should be. I'll take a look. Yes, McDonald's and probably KFC are closed. But, let me think... That's excellent! I'm really glad that my people will eat less junk food. What else?
The problem with sanctions on self-sufficient country like Russia is that after some threshold, that sanctions will stop doing harm to that country and began to harm sanctioners.
If the West really want to destroy Russia, they have to choose completely another strategy. F.e. completely destroy all that coronahoax crap they build, punish everybody who particiate, establish laws that will make such things impossible in future, return to real freedom and democracy without any stupid modern limitations and open borders for any educated Russian without any paywalls with that insane >$200k for unconditional residence permit. Grant easy citizenship for them. Russia will disappear in months. Easy and cost absolutely nothing for the West. And West will become whiter and get a decent rise in tax-paying working and useful population.
But that is not what they want. They need a scarecrow to permanently FUD their own citizens and fuck them in the name of never happening victory over barbarian us.
Looking form a side, I think Russians have better chances to survive in that game. And not Russia, as a state headed by obvious NWO shills, but Russians as etnicity and a territory where we live. White Americans too, it is hard to believe, but we are much closer than everybody think. But Europeans... they are good people, but trust their governments too much.
Since it's the creditor side that's been working to block the available accounts in currencies accepted for payment - yes, yes it is.
You'll have to wait forever.
It is impossible to collapse economy of country that really needs import nothing from abroad to stay alive. Especially with all that stupid sanctions. It is not the West necessary for Russia to keep running, it is Russia is necessary to the West to survive. And that situation was carefully made by West itself. From brainless switching to the Russian resources stolen by Jewish oligarchs from Russians to destroyng working nuclear power plants for the sake of stupid ecologyhoax.