Vox Day commentary: This is a considerably more realistic analysis than the one provided by internationally recognized geopolitical forecaster and strategist on international affairs George Friedman which I reviewed on the Darkstream last night. The key takeaways:
We underestimated the enemy’s power. The intensity and the effect of the psychological operations should disturb everyone on both sides. But it shouldn’t actually surprise us in the wake of the Covid psyops. And the Russians clearly understand that the enemy is not Ukrainian.
This is a creatively reworked “reconnaissance by combat” of the Great Patriotic War. Hence the advances on multiple fronts seemingly aimed at nowhere combined with the sudden halts that the globalist media interprets as “getting bogged down”. The focus is finding the enemy units and enveloping them, then gradually degrading their ability to fight before forcing mass surrenders.
This is a war unfamiliar to us veterans. The Russians bent over backwards to avoid collateral civilian damage. This effort was not rewarded due to the successful propagandization of the Ukrainian people. While Russia is still not targeting civilians, it is no longer accepting the higher risks to its soldiers required to avoid collateral damage.
We beat them to it by a week or two, starting our own special operation. This is why Putin ordered the attack when he did, and why the timing came as a surprise even to some of the Russian generals. It’s also how the Russians managed to surround 22 brigades – previously estimated by outsiders to be 10-12 brigades – in the Donbass Pocket.
The second stage of the operation. Recognizably, the Syrian scenario. Russia will not go into the cities to eliminate the militant opposition. It will surround the cities, starve them, and wait for their surrender or suppression by the moderate majority. This was the tactic they used successfully in the Second Chechen War.
Losses are not just tolerable (from a military statistical point of view) — insignificant. The relentless propaganda about massive Russian losses are pure projection, especially in light of the price that Russia paid during the Great Patriotic War aka WWII. Nor does it even make any sense in light of the fact that Russia has successfully taken an estimated 200,000 km2 in less than two weeks.
The final turning point. He predicts the war rapidly comes to an end after Kharkov and Odessa submit. At least, this stage of the larger, unrestricted war.
Will the encircled Banderites begin to commit atrocities in their impotent anger? Well, Ukrainians should also carry this cross on their own. From the Russian perspective, the civilians chose their side, both in their acceptance of the illegitimate Maidan regime in 2014 and their rejection of their liberators in 2022. They chose poorly. So the Russians aren’t going to lose any sleep over atrocities committed against people who consider them the enemy by the forces the people did not resist.
It’s all a bit cold-blooded and ruthless, but then, one shouldn’t expect the Russian perspective to have much in common with the irrational, highly-emotional, media-programmed perspective that pervades the WereWest. And it comes with enough predictions that we should soon be able to see if it is a useful model or not. It certainly comports with the visual map of the operation’s progress.
Losses don't concern Russia as much as the propaganda behind them. Disgustingly the Geneva convention is being ignored, largely by Ukraine continuously showing dead soldiers on many forms of media with impunity. Also the tactics employed where Urban fighting is blending into a civilian population. Where it is using every means. Flats in a block, full of munitions, with a command of snipers, but there are civilians alongside. Equivalent to a railway documentary watched last night about the Indian railways. It was in Kashmir and it was talking about the region. But it had a brief comment about a hotel destroyed, there were two terrorists firing out of this hotel, the army fires back and the hotel gets shelled, killing a further 10, a women her child and some staff.
However apart from the resistance, where that line, around the separatists of Donbass and Luhansk, had been heavily fortified as with many other pivotal points.
But hasn't almost the entire Russian army gained veteran status. Any equipment is rapidly advancing in terms of combat and modernization because it is gaining massive strategic and tactical expertise. Meanwhile as supply lines reform into further war production, there are obvious conerns as it becomes a pariah state, faster self sufficient, severing Western ties.
How ultimately does this shape ahead.
What does become of any supposed sides, and partners. Especially as the West is largely only offering increased inflation. As Russia is keener to continue any sales and compete. How do the ripples balance out even if it stabilises? Sooner there will be huge global shortages. Any run off escalates into competition. But as rivalry what unfolds.
Obviously the short game hopes Russia folds quicker. That long game is going to get grim even if it doesn't face off further.
Nice analysis, good read. My take is that in the short run, Russia wins the war. In the long run, they come out at least even if the side play on this conflict, ending the petro dollar, comes to pass. I also think there are enough non-American aligned interests, such that Russia will be back to where it was during the Cold War. Granted, the citizens didn't have coca-cola back then either, but they lasted a good 70 years basically as an independent economy. Remove central planning, and they will last longer if that happens.
But there is a lot of money to be made selling stuff to Russia, and inside a decade, they will re-enter the global marketplace.
Doesn't winning the war. An obvious objective, talks are stalling. Won't meet terms. Not yet in any event. In for the long haul. Further committed need the win to prove themselves. Now they're severing ties. Doesn't it embolden further opposition. We are talking about a run off. Shortages. No real front on how to implement even more inflation, like renewables, even EVs production is now hit, but there is a huge demand for their services, oil/gas/agriculture and etc. Plus the hardware on succeeding.
How does it play out. Analytically there's no magic wand for it. Presumption, perhaps it syncs. In the meantime they faster workaround any immediate sanction because of the products demanded. The unrest it causes.
Logically as committed as they are. Aren't the opposition to ensuring they don't. Hence the immediate propaganda and direct military aid. Imagine they have won. It's back to the Cold War. Except it is in support of insurrection, having had that taster, it won't die. And then who is listening as that run off above continues to spill.
I like unicorns too. But unfortunately. Unless they carved up a better plan. It's gonna get a lot uglier quicker.
Vox Day commentary: This is a considerably more realistic analysis than the one provided by internationally recognized geopolitical forecaster and strategist on international affairs George Friedman which I reviewed on the Darkstream last night. The key takeaways:
We underestimated the enemy’s power. The intensity and the effect of the psychological operations should disturb everyone on both sides. But it shouldn’t actually surprise us in the wake of the Covid psyops. And the Russians clearly understand that the enemy is not Ukrainian. This is a creatively reworked “reconnaissance by combat” of the Great Patriotic War. Hence the advances on multiple fronts seemingly aimed at nowhere combined with the sudden halts that the globalist media interprets as “getting bogged down”. The focus is finding the enemy units and enveloping them, then gradually degrading their ability to fight before forcing mass surrenders. This is a war unfamiliar to us veterans. The Russians bent over backwards to avoid collateral civilian damage. This effort was not rewarded due to the successful propagandization of the Ukrainian people. While Russia is still not targeting civilians, it is no longer accepting the higher risks to its soldiers required to avoid collateral damage. We beat them to it by a week or two, starting our own special operation. This is why Putin ordered the attack when he did, and why the timing came as a surprise even to some of the Russian generals. It’s also how the Russians managed to surround 22 brigades – previously estimated by outsiders to be 10-12 brigades – in the Donbass Pocket. The second stage of the operation. Recognizably, the Syrian scenario. Russia will not go into the cities to eliminate the militant opposition. It will surround the cities, starve them, and wait for their surrender or suppression by the moderate majority. This was the tactic they used successfully in the Second Chechen War. Losses are not just tolerable (from a military statistical point of view) — insignificant. The relentless propaganda about massive Russian losses are pure projection, especially in light of the price that Russia paid during the Great Patriotic War aka WWII. Nor does it even make any sense in light of the fact that Russia has successfully taken an estimated 200,000 km2 in less than two weeks. The final turning point. He predicts the war rapidly comes to an end after Kharkov and Odessa submit. At least, this stage of the larger, unrestricted war. Will the encircled Banderites begin to commit atrocities in their impotent anger? Well, Ukrainians should also carry this cross on their own. From the Russian perspective, the civilians chose their side, both in their acceptance of the illegitimate Maidan regime in 2014 and their rejection of their liberators in 2022. They chose poorly. So the Russians aren’t going to lose any sleep over atrocities committed against people who consider them the enemy by the forces the people did not resist. It’s all a bit cold-blooded and ruthless, but then, one shouldn’t expect the Russian perspective to have much in common with the irrational, highly-emotional, media-programmed perspective that pervades the WereWest. And it comes with enough predictions that we should soon be able to see if it is a useful model or not. It certainly comports with the visual map of the operation’s progress.
That's the conclusion I've pretty much come to, throwing in NATO expansion as well.
Losses don't concern Russia as much as the propaganda behind them. Disgustingly the Geneva convention is being ignored, largely by Ukraine continuously showing dead soldiers on many forms of media with impunity. Also the tactics employed where Urban fighting is blending into a civilian population. Where it is using every means. Flats in a block, full of munitions, with a command of snipers, but there are civilians alongside. Equivalent to a railway documentary watched last night about the Indian railways. It was in Kashmir and it was talking about the region. But it had a brief comment about a hotel destroyed, there were two terrorists firing out of this hotel, the army fires back and the hotel gets shelled, killing a further 10, a women her child and some staff.
However apart from the resistance, where that line, around the separatists of Donbass and Luhansk, had been heavily fortified as with many other pivotal points.
But hasn't almost the entire Russian army gained veteran status. Any equipment is rapidly advancing in terms of combat and modernization because it is gaining massive strategic and tactical expertise. Meanwhile as supply lines reform into further war production, there are obvious conerns as it becomes a pariah state, faster self sufficient, severing Western ties.
How ultimately does this shape ahead.
What does become of any supposed sides, and partners. Especially as the West is largely only offering increased inflation. As Russia is keener to continue any sales and compete. How do the ripples balance out even if it stabilises? Sooner there will be huge global shortages. Any run off escalates into competition. But as rivalry what unfolds.
Obviously the short game hopes Russia folds quicker. That long game is going to get grim even if it doesn't face off further.
Nice analysis, good read. My take is that in the short run, Russia wins the war. In the long run, they come out at least even if the side play on this conflict, ending the petro dollar, comes to pass. I also think there are enough non-American aligned interests, such that Russia will be back to where it was during the Cold War. Granted, the citizens didn't have coca-cola back then either, but they lasted a good 70 years basically as an independent economy. Remove central planning, and they will last longer if that happens.
But there is a lot of money to be made selling stuff to Russia, and inside a decade, they will re-enter the global marketplace.
They will have coca cola just coke wont get royalties
Good point.
Thanks, nice reply.
Doesn't winning the war. An obvious objective, talks are stalling. Won't meet terms. Not yet in any event. In for the long haul. Further committed need the win to prove themselves. Now they're severing ties. Doesn't it embolden further opposition. We are talking about a run off. Shortages. No real front on how to implement even more inflation, like renewables, even EVs production is now hit, but there is a huge demand for their services, oil/gas/agriculture and etc. Plus the hardware on succeeding.
How does it play out. Analytically there's no magic wand for it. Presumption, perhaps it syncs. In the meantime they faster workaround any immediate sanction because of the products demanded. The unrest it causes.
Logically as committed as they are. Aren't the opposition to ensuring they don't. Hence the immediate propaganda and direct military aid. Imagine they have won. It's back to the Cold War. Except it is in support of insurrection, having had that taster, it won't die. And then who is listening as that run off above continues to spill.
I like unicorns too. But unfortunately. Unless they carved up a better plan. It's gonna get a lot uglier quicker.