Get ready for another false flag
(yewtu.be)
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There is a call and response element to warfare. The false flag allows other nations an opportunity to opt in or out of support.
"Because of our stance on terrorism, our nation will stand with them against this threat." or "Because the attack was on holy ground, we see this as a religious issue and will not send troops."
Yes, international community. But when the cause and effect constitute sanctions anyway from them for conflict, but their key allie China are supporting them anyway, and the population support Russian build up. Who are they convincing? It wouldn't matter.
Why a false flag? It prompts response. A response already amassing.
It therefore is what? The grounds for invasion?
Russo-Swedish War, 1788
Winter War, 1939
Operation Trust, 1921-1926
Pearl Harbor
Operation Northwoods
9/11
I'd say yes, this is their M.O.
Russian M.O? If it's a Russian false flag, the source material.
The false flag prompts recourse. It can grandstand immediate provocation into justifying conflict. Not the debate.
Who would Russia need to convince? Their own population supporting Russian build up, or the intervention? Their allies, like China supporting them? An international community, sanctioining conflict? Ukraine and allies attacking their security, or vice-versa?
RUS has to be sure their moves won't interrupt German oil sales, for one example.