Utopia isn't a thing. There are at least a million different and mutually exclusive ideas of what utopia is, and each one represents a dystopian nightmare from the point of view of any of the others.
I get it, people who believe there can be any kind of utopia cannot let that idea go because they have wrapped their identity in it somehow, but it cannot be a thing.
The only real things are centralized power and the decentralization of that power. The trend will always be towards centralization, because that is human nature. Eventually, centralized systems have a decentralizing event, which can be the ruling class deciding to decentralize in order to eventually gain more power - as in the industrial revolution and everything that led up to it - or it can be the centralization squeezing too tightly leading to something other than revolution (because revolution usually just leads to a changing of the people running a centralized system, but not always).
This entire idea that people need to find jobs in an economy only exists for rare periods in history. Outside of that it is distributed tribes, agrarian life, variations on feudal systems, and people trying to consolidate wealth and power on larger and larger scales, and cycling among those forever.
UBI is a variation on a feudal system, btw.
If there is ever a time when a ruling class literally does not need people, they will find a way to get rid of them. Doesn't matter who is running the show, because it will eventually re-centralize.
They still need people for data, and to feel powerful. They need medical research slaves, they need sex slaves, they need an engineering and scientific class, they need an enforcer class. This is, again, a variation on a feudal system, and none of these pieces can be fully replaced by machines in any meaningful way at any point in our lifetimes.
The only real answer is constantly working towards decentralizing every centralized system. But, no matter what, the cycles will continue over a long enough timeline. They always have and always will.
We seem to be mostly in agreement. However, there'll be no need for medical or engineering or scientific slaves, or enforcers, once AI does those tasks. Sex slaves is another matter.
AI will help speed up research, but any AI in our lifetime is only going to be able to mimic like 80-90th percentile of human intelligence. What it offers is speed, including for brute force. So engineers and scientists will be needed for the high-end stuff forever.
And by medical research slaves, what I mean is lab rats to experiment on. AI (or humans) can't do most of that research in a vacuum. I'm pretty sure that will be a significant part of any UBI economy.
So engineers and scientists will be needed for the high-end stuff forever.
Unfortunately that's a cope. It's true enough for LLMs, they wont get there no matter how much text you feed them, but then the next fundamental algorithm will be discovered/invented, and the next, and then things will look different.
Utopia isn't a thing. There are at least a million different and mutually exclusive ideas of what utopia is, and each one represents a dystopian nightmare from the point of view of any of the others.
I get it, people who believe there can be any kind of utopia cannot let that idea go because they have wrapped their identity in it somehow, but it cannot be a thing.
The only real things are centralized power and the decentralization of that power. The trend will always be towards centralization, because that is human nature. Eventually, centralized systems have a decentralizing event, which can be the ruling class deciding to decentralize in order to eventually gain more power - as in the industrial revolution and everything that led up to it - or it can be the centralization squeezing too tightly leading to something other than revolution (because revolution usually just leads to a changing of the people running a centralized system, but not always).
This entire idea that people need to find jobs in an economy only exists for rare periods in history. Outside of that it is distributed tribes, agrarian life, variations on feudal systems, and people trying to consolidate wealth and power on larger and larger scales, and cycling among those forever.
UBI is a variation on a feudal system, btw.
If there is ever a time when a ruling class literally does not need people, they will find a way to get rid of them. Doesn't matter who is running the show, because it will eventually re-centralize.
They still need people for data, and to feel powerful. They need medical research slaves, they need sex slaves, they need an engineering and scientific class, they need an enforcer class. This is, again, a variation on a feudal system, and none of these pieces can be fully replaced by machines in any meaningful way at any point in our lifetimes.
The only real answer is constantly working towards decentralizing every centralized system. But, no matter what, the cycles will continue over a long enough timeline. They always have and always will.
We seem to be mostly in agreement. However, there'll be no need for medical or engineering or scientific slaves, or enforcers, once AI does those tasks. Sex slaves is another matter.
AI will help speed up research, but any AI in our lifetime is only going to be able to mimic like 80-90th percentile of human intelligence. What it offers is speed, including for brute force. So engineers and scientists will be needed for the high-end stuff forever.
And by medical research slaves, what I mean is lab rats to experiment on. AI (or humans) can't do most of that research in a vacuum. I'm pretty sure that will be a significant part of any UBI economy.
Unfortunately that's a cope. It's true enough for LLMs, they wont get there no matter how much text you feed them, but then the next fundamental algorithm will be discovered/invented, and the next, and then things will look different.
Yeah, they've been saying that for 60 or 70 years. It's just around the corner.