AI will help speed up research, but any AI in our lifetime is only going to be able to mimic like 80-90th percentile of human intelligence. What it offers is speed, including for brute force. So engineers and scientists will be needed for the high-end stuff forever.
And by medical research slaves, what I mean is lab rats to experiment on. AI (or humans) can't do most of that research in a vacuum. I'm pretty sure that will be a significant part of any UBI economy.
So engineers and scientists will be needed for the high-end stuff forever.
Unfortunately that's a cope. It's true enough for LLMs, they wont get there no matter how much text you feed them, but then the next fundamental algorithm will be discovered/invented, and the next, and then things will look different.
They were right, and we're steadily approaching that corner. But yeah the majority of the world is generally blind and won't recognize anything until after the fact.
idk, I've been in this industry over 25 years and I don't think the trajectory puts us anywhere near replacing engineers anytime in my lifetime.
When I was in college everything was "we're in an AI winter"...for 20 years. In the 70s everyone was sure we were almost there, then the active paths hit brick walls.
It feels very much like that now. Machine learning, deep learning, neural networks, etc., were all exciting, but really seemed to plateau around 2020, and then LLMs added a bit more life, but still the same. LLMs, agents, et al, are at about 80% of what they will ever be, and squeezing out that last 20% is going to take an insane amount of compute. After that? Stagnation and derivation, and not much new is my feeling, but we'll see.
It just feels like this story has played out time and again, with AI, with offshoring,... Everything that was supposed to be the end of tech always led to exponential growth eventually.
Yes, for most people, the jobs that exist now will be automated away (though it will take 10-20 years), but probably 15-20% of the population will still be needed as research scientists, engineers, and enforcers. AI, and all automation, is great at repeating what has already been done to death, or finding needles in haystacks, but has never been anywhere near the innovative or the novel (or the artistically creative).
Either way, in my opinion, the best path is outside of that system. You don't want to be in it whether you have a job or not.
AI will help speed up research, but any AI in our lifetime is only going to be able to mimic like 80-90th percentile of human intelligence. What it offers is speed, including for brute force. So engineers and scientists will be needed for the high-end stuff forever.
And by medical research slaves, what I mean is lab rats to experiment on. AI (or humans) can't do most of that research in a vacuum. I'm pretty sure that will be a significant part of any UBI economy.
Unfortunately that's a cope. It's true enough for LLMs, they wont get there no matter how much text you feed them, but then the next fundamental algorithm will be discovered/invented, and the next, and then things will look different.
Yeah, they've been saying that for 60 or 70 years. It's just around the corner.
They were right, and we're steadily approaching that corner. But yeah the majority of the world is generally blind and won't recognize anything until after the fact.
idk, I've been in this industry over 25 years and I don't think the trajectory puts us anywhere near replacing engineers anytime in my lifetime.
When I was in college everything was "we're in an AI winter"...for 20 years. In the 70s everyone was sure we were almost there, then the active paths hit brick walls.
It feels very much like that now. Machine learning, deep learning, neural networks, etc., were all exciting, but really seemed to plateau around 2020, and then LLMs added a bit more life, but still the same. LLMs, agents, et al, are at about 80% of what they will ever be, and squeezing out that last 20% is going to take an insane amount of compute. After that? Stagnation and derivation, and not much new is my feeling, but we'll see.
It just feels like this story has played out time and again, with AI, with offshoring,... Everything that was supposed to be the end of tech always led to exponential growth eventually.
Yes, for most people, the jobs that exist now will be automated away (though it will take 10-20 years), but probably 15-20% of the population will still be needed as research scientists, engineers, and enforcers. AI, and all automation, is great at repeating what has already been done to death, or finding needles in haystacks, but has never been anywhere near the innovative or the novel (or the artistically creative).
Either way, in my opinion, the best path is outside of that system. You don't want to be in it whether you have a job or not.