It's still not capable of doing that, and likely won't be any time soon if at all.
Look at much of their science and technology, it's more promise than reality. The obsession with Einstein leads them chasing after particles that don't exist (Higgs, quarks, etc). Fusion is always 10 years away. Their universe needs 70% dark matter and energy to keep that belief system going.
Yet we are to believe they have AGI around the corner that can take most jobs + power humanoid robots? Please.
Physics sure made accelerating progress before stagnating in the 20th century. Same thing with chemistry. And biology is still accelerating in my opinion. AI is still young and likely has a lot more acceleration left in it. Besides, it's already close to the singularity in that we now have AIs that can do general tasks with some level of competency. All that's left is to get the competency consistently above average human levels. I don't think that's far away at all. Even if it is, we still have to deal with it happening whenever it does.
The AI industry has already proven itself to be full of smoke and mirrors. It is at Elon Musk levels of bsing, so I am putting it in the "just another 10 years bro" category.
So far the experiments where they used coding agents to try and build something serious were predictably awful. They had agents try to autonomously build a web browser, and it just ripped off code from a known open source browser and made a mess of it. They regurgitate, they can follow old instructions (imperfectly), they can summarize consensus views, but they don't think.
The singularity can think and reason, if it were to ever exist, which is not guaranteed.
EDIT: And speaking of Elon Musk he's at the forefront of pushing the autonomy hype. Do I even need to list his many lies? Why should I trust these charlatan's when they say "we're so scared of the AI we've created!"?
Every year they claim to be freaked out over the latest tool. A couple years ago it was "Devin the autonomous software engineer". What happened there? Right it was a bunch of hype that didn't work.
But every year I must accept that "this time is different, we're telling the truth now"
Ignore whatever other people are saying, just think about it logically. I don't care what anyone else has said that did or didn't happen, I just observe that AI has been demonstrably getting better. Before you couldn't even have a chat bot that wrote code in the language you asked, now you can have a chat bot not only write code in the language you ask but it actually does something useful and they can fix problems in existing code. Far from perfectly, but still at the point where people who don't know any programming languages can build useful applications with AI.
If an industry relies heavily on lies to get funding and stay relevant, that calls into question the entire narrative about it, especially in the near term. It's more than just months, AI companies have been playing the "6-12 more months" game for 4 years now.
We are seeing improvements in tools that help programmers and that's to be expected. Being able to actually replace them, let alone the even more enormous jump into autonomous robots (which could somehow replace migrants) is not even in the cards short of some miracle.
They've cranked their AI as far as it can go, spending more than any companies in history on capex. We're at the point some of them are even talking about building their own nuclear reactors because of the high energy demand. This is well into diminishing returns. It's exponentially more money and energy for linear (or logarithmic) gains.
It's still not capable of doing that, and likely won't be any time soon if at all.
Look at much of their science and technology, it's more promise than reality. The obsession with Einstein leads them chasing after particles that don't exist (Higgs, quarks, etc). Fusion is always 10 years away. Their universe needs 70% dark matter and energy to keep that belief system going.
Yet we are to believe they have AGI around the corner that can take most jobs + power humanoid robots? Please.
Physics sure made accelerating progress before stagnating in the 20th century. Same thing with chemistry. And biology is still accelerating in my opinion. AI is still young and likely has a lot more acceleration left in it. Besides, it's already close to the singularity in that we now have AIs that can do general tasks with some level of competency. All that's left is to get the competency consistently above average human levels. I don't think that's far away at all. Even if it is, we still have to deal with it happening whenever it does.
The AI industry has already proven itself to be full of smoke and mirrors. It is at Elon Musk levels of bsing, so I am putting it in the "just another 10 years bro" category.
So far the experiments where they used coding agents to try and build something serious were predictably awful. They had agents try to autonomously build a web browser, and it just ripped off code from a known open source browser and made a mess of it. They regurgitate, they can follow old instructions (imperfectly), they can summarize consensus views, but they don't think.
The singularity can think and reason, if it were to ever exist, which is not guaranteed.
EDIT: And speaking of Elon Musk he's at the forefront of pushing the autonomy hype. Do I even need to list his many lies? Why should I trust these charlatan's when they say "we're so scared of the AI we've created!"?
Every year they claim to be freaked out over the latest tool. A couple years ago it was "Devin the autonomous software engineer". What happened there? Right it was a bunch of hype that didn't work.
But every year I must accept that "this time is different, we're telling the truth now"
Ignore whatever other people are saying, just think about it logically. I don't care what anyone else has said that did or didn't happen, I just observe that AI has been demonstrably getting better. Before you couldn't even have a chat bot that wrote code in the language you asked, now you can have a chat bot not only write code in the language you ask but it actually does something useful and they can fix problems in existing code. Far from perfectly, but still at the point where people who don't know any programming languages can build useful applications with AI.
If an industry relies heavily on lies to get funding and stay relevant, that calls into question the entire narrative about it, especially in the near term. It's more than just months, AI companies have been playing the "6-12 more months" game for 4 years now.
We are seeing improvements in tools that help programmers and that's to be expected. Being able to actually replace them, let alone the even more enormous jump into autonomous robots (which could somehow replace migrants) is not even in the cards short of some miracle.
They've cranked their AI as far as it can go, spending more than any companies in history on capex. We're at the point some of them are even talking about building their own nuclear reactors because of the high energy demand. This is well into diminishing returns. It's exponentially more money and energy for linear (or logarithmic) gains.