Since US Gov weaponized the US gov bonds against RUS in 2022, all the oil nations and export nations have been slowly reducing their US gov bond purchases and holdings and moving to corp bonds
Russia signed a deal with Iran on developing the oil sector, China signed a deal with Iran a bit later
During summer Saudis alerted their citizens to get out of Lebanon.
Hamas leaders had a visit to Russia
Wagner groups head were in Egypt
Russia has stopped several gas pipeline efforts via West African nations with military coup support in such countries
US wants to block the China BRI by partnering with key countries in the Middle-East and Stans
As per 1, many countries don't think US has a lot to offer, except petrodollar recycling enslavement and some implicit security guarantees, that are starting to look pretty thin after Afghanistan, Ukraine and now Israel.
Even India has stated their distaste publicly to holding US gov debt, because US Gov cannot be trusted on bond markets anymore.
These are just some of the big moves.
The issue is that there is not (yet) replacement for petrodollar and USG bond market.
But that doesn't mean that both of them can't break down slowly, as countries try to exit them with minimum damage to their own income and finances.
The issue is over-debted world economy, which is trying to push economic growth and trade with high and higher debt loads, while resulting in less economic growth, but higher inflation.
Historically these issues are solved via war: restructuring demand, shortages, destruction of production capacity, rebalancing of currencies and trade sanctions. Then finally physical wars.
We are already at last stage.
Anybody who still thinks this is business as usual is deluded and is following some old outdated script.
But this is a loooong arse process, it won't be over in a month or two, it'll take years if not decades, sometimes fast for a while, then again slow for a while.
Since US Gov weaponized the US gov bonds against RUS in 2022, all the oil nations and export nations have been slowly reducing their US gov bond purchases and holdings and moving to corp bonds
Russia signed a deal with Iran on developing the oil sector, China signed a deal with Iran a bit later
During summer Saudis alerted their citizens to get out of Lebanon.
Hamas leaders had a visit to Russia
Wagner groups head were in Egypt
Russia has stopped several gas pipeline efforts via West African nations with military coup support in such countries
US wants to block the China BRI by partnering with key countries in the Middle-East and Stans
As per 1, many countries don't think US has a lot to offer, except petrodollar recycling enslavement and some implicit security guarantees, that are starting to look pretty thin after Afghanistan, Ukraine and now Israel.
Even India has stated their distaste publicly to holding US gov debt, because US Gov cannot be trusted on bond markets anymore.
These are just some of the big moves.
The issue is that there is not (yet) replacement for petrodollar and USG bond market.
But that doesn't mean that both of them can't break down slowly, as countries try to exit them with minimum damage to their own income and finances.
The issue is over-debted world economy, which is trying to push economic growth and trade with high and higher debt loads, while resulting in less economic growth, but higher inflation.
Historically these issues are solved via war: restructuring demand, shortages, destruction of production capacity, rebalancing of currencies and trade sanctions. Then finally physical wars.
We are already at last stage.
Anybody who still thinks this is business as usual is deluded and is following some old outdated script.
But this is a loooong arse process, it won't be over in a month or two, it'll take years if not decades, sometimes fast for a while, then again slow for a while.