will the high prices in housing ever end?
link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tjj5GT8qiJs
summary:
♦ housing prices relative to inflation in a bubble similar to '05-08.
♦ current demand low due to rates, etc.
♦ current houses on market 650k
♦ avg houses on market 1.2 million, 2019
♦ comparison to ftx who took out loans against their inflated ftt shitcoin by constraining supply and keeping float low; people today likewise might be borrowing against inflated house price.
♦ any increase in supply of houses could drop the median home price.
factors for increases in supply / people selling:
♦ air bnb boomers getting more regulation in ny, texas, other jurisdictions making the business less lucrative.
♦ economic downturn data including employment etc. that might lead to people selling their homes.
not discussed would be the counter thesis on how long ((they)) could keep things inflated. large investors could print fake govt money, airbnb could make a backrooms deal with government to buy the properties which could slip out of their wringing hands. get some grant and house migrants there or something, which seems to be the play for large hotels in places like ny. maybe eventually prices regress back to the mean, but could be another 5 years.
I watched this last night. George did a good job illustrating why prices are coming down, but didn't go into MORE reasons why real estate will crater FASTER than before:
-Commercial real estate market melt-down
-Regional banks melting down due to exposure to CRE
-Lending for consumers drying up and requiring higher down payments
-Higher unemployment for various reason not mentioned
personally just looking to buy a couple acres or something and don't really give a shit about how many fake fiat dollars its worth at any given time, other than being able to pay for it and the value it has as a roof over one's head. property will always reflect median home price so if someone sells to buy a new place they will only ever be able to buy an equivalent property, and only if they trade into another asset class at a housing market peak would they get some 'return'.
I second this philosophy. thinking about housing purely economically, when one buys a house they are buying into the housing market. the value of the house may fluctuate, but it's value in relation to other houses will remain pretty constant.
What you need to worry about our local price fluctuations. if some kind of local disaster happens, or the income generation in your local city or town dries up, you could be in trouble because your house will go down in value independent of the market.
2 more weeks!