I was down voted in the other topic claiming they were nukes. I entered this topic and it's similar. Although apology for stating it is highly unlikely it was a nuke, and not specifically speculating on radiation readings.
The readings aren't particularly accurate, they are reading what exactly, looking for signatures of precisely what compounds?
Perhaps it is created by industry? Or involved in certain production of?
In any case the source was exploded.
In reality there needs to be graphs showing readings from conflict, and prior, over extensive periods. Otherwise we're speculating on the materials stored.
I really didn't think ammo produced this because it's incased. So it would have to be production, or let's suggest detonation, or an exhaust?
Nobody, except stuff who service it. But if it works OK and shows real current background, than it is an interesting phenomena.
The readings aren't particularly accurate, they are reading what exactly, looking for signatures of precisely what compounds?
No, they usually vary during days and seasons, but usually, if you had background level at one average for a long time and suddenly that average changed, it is a sign of either sensor malfunction, either sensor contamination (somebody put a vintage vase from uranium glass near, or trashed old smoke detector near), either change in background level.
Also, towns around have no such change at all, so it is not solar/space radiation change - you could choose "Area radius" on the top of that window and add other nearby towns graphs to the plot.
Will see, if background will continue to stay at the new level, then with high probability some incident with lightly radioactive materials happened.
Perhaps it is created by industry? Or involved in certain production of?
May be. Or with same probability it could be delivery and extermination of that DU shells in warehouse.
I really didn't think ammo produced this because it's incased.
Not necessary. If it is some old things, then case will become radioactive too from the inner core. The ton of old DU shells will have same effect as ton of uranium ore. If you bring a ton of uranium ore into the town, then background in the area around the storage will slightly rise.
So it would have to be production, or let's suggest detonation, or an exhaust?
In any case that looks like something radioactive appeared day before, then was destroyed. It can't be nuclear explosion or some serious accident with powerful nuclear material, and represent no any health danger.
I am debating that you're showing me a graph, and it hasn't showed me enough information.
I need to be able to see over a much longer period to be able to speculate. On current conflict and prior for months.
Ascertaining if there was abnormal activity, away from other local industry. It is quite possible many of the units there have been converted for war. It had quite a big industrial sector.
Then again it might have been incinerator day. They might have fired up the trash compactors.
I find this topic pointless. Incased shells don't give that reading. Not into the atmosphere.
So it is industrial, or weapons testing, or an exhaust.
You're trying to add a narrative I disagree with. You're speculating it was munitions. Except they're incased and they don't show these readings unless perhaps they're detonated in testing, production however can cause readings, so can various vents and exhausts. But how abnormal is it? Your graph hasn't established any other patterns to disapprove or validate your narrative.
I need to be able to see over a much longer period to be able to speculate. On current conflict and prior for months.
I think they have that info, may be behind paywall.
My assumption is that natural variations are caused by changes in space weather, so nearby towns will show same change at the same time if change is natural. They does not.
Also, daily variations are daily, so they don't last longer than day. Also, it is much more probable that you will see sharp rise from average with following staying at that level in case of accident. And if you suggest that there was previous accidents and they are regular, then background level in that area before the accident will not be equal to towns nearby. Backround easily could rise sharply due to accident, but it can't fall in the same manner, it is a long process. And background level jumps from previous consequent accidents will accumulate, so you have no chance to see exactly same level in that are as in nearby towns.
So, week of data with sharp rise in the middle is more than enough to make some conclusions if sensor is function normally and data is not manipulated.
Incased shells don't give that reading. Not into the atmosphere.
Easy test for you for ~$1. Buy a 2% thoriated tungsten welding electrode or ask for a short remainder of such if you have a welder among friends. Thorium undergo alpha-decay, but it decays into other elements that have noticeable gamma emissions. So it will have very low gamma radiation, adding something like 0.05-0.1 uSv/h to your background in close proximity. Then put it in steel box. Wait a year. You will find that box will become slightly radioactive too, may be 0.02uSv/h over background. Longer exposure will give higher radioactivity of casing. You know, all that high energy alpha, beta and gamma do nasty things with innocent elements sometimes making radioactive isotopes from them.
As for "into atmosphere" big amount of slighlty radioactive material will emit much more gamma-quants around, so you will register them on relatively large distances. If you have a coal powerplant around - ride to it with geiger counter. Coal ash is slightly radioactive, and working coal powerplant have higher radiation level than working nuclear power plant due to heaps of coal ash nearby. You will register higher radiation levels few miles from ash storages of power plant. And it is not in atmosphere, because in that case you will have higher background at much longer distances. It is heaps of ash have a lot of decays and some of their gamma-quants have a higher chance to reach your detector.
You're speculating it was munitions.
I clearly stated that it is my speculation. What's the problem? Any speculation is good enough if it fits observations. Your speculation about some new manufacturing process that started in Khmelnitsky exactly day before explosion that needs radioactive materials in so big amounts that they are detectable from a distance (?) is not different at all and rises much more questions.
But how abnormal is it?
Sudden rising of background after few days of low background and staying at rised level for few days is abnormal. Usually it is a clear pattern of some accident with radioactive material.
Again, I told you that I'm not exclude sensor malfunction or local contamination, next few days will show if that is a case. If it was an accident that level will stay for a long time. If it was a malfunction or local contamination you will see abnormal sharp drop in background level.
Or that information is just manipulated for whatever reason.
IDK. If you will measure body temperature for a week and suddenly in the middle it will rise from 36.6°C to 38.2°C - will you need a full history of body temperature for years before or it will be enough for you to make some assumptions without full-scale statistics research?
The shape of curve change is suspicious, not amount of change or its absolute value.
I disagree. If munitions are in constant storage that reading will be high. Yes? Unless a base uses shielding, but those munitions will be transporting anyway. Can you provide readings from areas hosting bases with nukes or storing shells that supposedly produce radiation? It's the only way to confirm your theory. You could do this in Russia, or Europe, Asia, perhaps? Near an active nuclear base using transports. As an example we'd see this reading in Svastapol? Not quite but maybe. When it outfits the Fleet.
No that graph hasn't showed much going back 1 month prior. As I said months, prior to conflict and during conflict. I am speculating parts of the industrial sector got turned into war facilities. They go through periods of inactivity. If it is industry. You've done the same on citing munition transport.
We are trying to establish a few things. If industry causes it. If it is those munitions. If it is detonation. If it is an exhaust.
Another theory you haven't used is if there was a prior attack on the city, prior to the main explosions, the x2 hits in question. This often happens, an attack prior, testing air defenses.
Otherwise who knows. I am sticking with, encased shells don't provide that reading.
How to get it - https://remap.jrc.ec.europa.eu/Simple.aspx
On the map find Khmelnitsky, click on hexagon, wait, on the left panel Khmelnitsky item will appear, click on it, window with chart will appear.
Who knows what caused the readings?
I was down voted in the other topic claiming they were nukes. I entered this topic and it's similar. Although apology for stating it is highly unlikely it was a nuke, and not specifically speculating on radiation readings.
The readings aren't particularly accurate, they are reading what exactly, looking for signatures of precisely what compounds?
Perhaps it is created by industry? Or involved in certain production of?
In any case the source was exploded.
In reality there needs to be graphs showing readings from conflict, and prior, over extensive periods. Otherwise we're speculating on the materials stored.
I really didn't think ammo produced this because it's incased. So it would have to be production, or let's suggest detonation, or an exhaust?
Nobody, except stuff who service it. But if it works OK and shows real current background, than it is an interesting phenomena.
No, they usually vary during days and seasons, but usually, if you had background level at one average for a long time and suddenly that average changed, it is a sign of either sensor malfunction, either sensor contamination (somebody put a vintage vase from uranium glass near, or trashed old smoke detector near), either change in background level.
Also, towns around have no such change at all, so it is not solar/space radiation change - you could choose "Area radius" on the top of that window and add other nearby towns graphs to the plot.
Will see, if background will continue to stay at the new level, then with high probability some incident with lightly radioactive materials happened.
May be. Or with same probability it could be delivery and extermination of that DU shells in warehouse.
Not necessary. If it is some old things, then case will become radioactive too from the inner core. The ton of old DU shells will have same effect as ton of uranium ore. If you bring a ton of uranium ore into the town, then background in the area around the storage will slightly rise.
In any case that looks like something radioactive appeared day before, then was destroyed. It can't be nuclear explosion or some serious accident with powerful nuclear material, and represent no any health danger.
I am debating that you're showing me a graph, and it hasn't showed me enough information.
I need to be able to see over a much longer period to be able to speculate. On current conflict and prior for months.
Ascertaining if there was abnormal activity, away from other local industry. It is quite possible many of the units there have been converted for war. It had quite a big industrial sector.
Then again it might have been incinerator day. They might have fired up the trash compactors.
I find this topic pointless. Incased shells don't give that reading. Not into the atmosphere.
So it is industrial, or weapons testing, or an exhaust.
You're trying to add a narrative I disagree with. You're speculating it was munitions. Except they're incased and they don't show these readings unless perhaps they're detonated in testing, production however can cause readings, so can various vents and exhausts. But how abnormal is it? Your graph hasn't established any other patterns to disapprove or validate your narrative.
I think they have that info, may be behind paywall.
My assumption is that natural variations are caused by changes in space weather, so nearby towns will show same change at the same time if change is natural. They does not. Also, daily variations are daily, so they don't last longer than day. Also, it is much more probable that you will see sharp rise from average with following staying at that level in case of accident. And if you suggest that there was previous accidents and they are regular, then background level in that area before the accident will not be equal to towns nearby. Backround easily could rise sharply due to accident, but it can't fall in the same manner, it is a long process. And background level jumps from previous consequent accidents will accumulate, so you have no chance to see exactly same level in that are as in nearby towns.
So, week of data with sharp rise in the middle is more than enough to make some conclusions if sensor is function normally and data is not manipulated.
Easy test for you for ~$1. Buy a 2% thoriated tungsten welding electrode or ask for a short remainder of such if you have a welder among friends. Thorium undergo alpha-decay, but it decays into other elements that have noticeable gamma emissions. So it will have very low gamma radiation, adding something like 0.05-0.1 uSv/h to your background in close proximity. Then put it in steel box. Wait a year. You will find that box will become slightly radioactive too, may be 0.02uSv/h over background. Longer exposure will give higher radioactivity of casing. You know, all that high energy alpha, beta and gamma do nasty things with innocent elements sometimes making radioactive isotopes from them.
As for "into atmosphere" big amount of slighlty radioactive material will emit much more gamma-quants around, so you will register them on relatively large distances. If you have a coal powerplant around - ride to it with geiger counter. Coal ash is slightly radioactive, and working coal powerplant have higher radiation level than working nuclear power plant due to heaps of coal ash nearby. You will register higher radiation levels few miles from ash storages of power plant. And it is not in atmosphere, because in that case you will have higher background at much longer distances. It is heaps of ash have a lot of decays and some of their gamma-quants have a higher chance to reach your detector.
I clearly stated that it is my speculation. What's the problem? Any speculation is good enough if it fits observations. Your speculation about some new manufacturing process that started in Khmelnitsky exactly day before explosion that needs radioactive materials in so big amounts that they are detectable from a distance (?) is not different at all and rises much more questions.
Sudden rising of background after few days of low background and staying at rised level for few days is abnormal. Usually it is a clear pattern of some accident with radioactive material.
Again, I told you that I'm not exclude sensor malfunction or local contamination, next few days will show if that is a case. If it was an accident that level will stay for a long time. If it was a malfunction or local contamination you will see abnormal sharp drop in background level.
Or that information is just manipulated for whatever reason.
IDK. If you will measure body temperature for a week and suddenly in the middle it will rise from 36.6°C to 38.2°C - will you need a full history of body temperature for years before or it will be enough for you to make some assumptions without full-scale statistics research?
The shape of curve change is suspicious, not amount of change or its absolute value.
I disagree. If munitions are in constant storage that reading will be high. Yes? Unless a base uses shielding, but those munitions will be transporting anyway. Can you provide readings from areas hosting bases with nukes or storing shells that supposedly produce radiation? It's the only way to confirm your theory. You could do this in Russia, or Europe, Asia, perhaps? Near an active nuclear base using transports. As an example we'd see this reading in Svastapol? Not quite but maybe. When it outfits the Fleet.
No that graph hasn't showed much going back 1 month prior. As I said months, prior to conflict and during conflict. I am speculating parts of the industrial sector got turned into war facilities. They go through periods of inactivity. If it is industry. You've done the same on citing munition transport.
We are trying to establish a few things. If industry causes it. If it is those munitions. If it is detonation. If it is an exhaust.
Another theory you haven't used is if there was a prior attack on the city, prior to the main explosions, the x2 hits in question. This often happens, an attack prior, testing air defenses.
Otherwise who knows. I am sticking with, encased shells don't provide that reading.
And if you need longer period, I found it from same source for you: https://redata.jrc.ec.europa.eu/chart/timeseries/daily/UA33429 From 15 Apr to 15 May. Long enough for you?
How to get it - https://remap.jrc.ec.europa.eu/Simple.aspx On the map find Khmelnitsky, click on hexagon, wait, on the left panel Khmelnitsky item will appear, click on it, window with chart will appear.