The practical impossibility of modeling climate was demonstrated by accident over 60 years ago. I often find striking things such as this admitted in Wikipedia, but then again They know no one's looking.
Edward Lorenz was an early pioneer of the theory. His interest in chaos came about accidentally through his work on weather prediction in 1961. Lorenz and his collaborator Ellen Fetter were using a simple digital computer, a Royal McBee LGP-30, to run weather simulations. They wanted to see a sequence of data again, and to save time they started the simulation in the middle of its course. They did this by entering a printout of the data that corresponded to conditions in the middle of the original simulation. To their surprise, the weather the machine began to predict was completely different from the previous calculation. They tracked this down to the computer printout. The computer worked with 6-digit precision, but the printout rounded variables off to a 3-digit number, so a value like 0.506127 printed as 0.506. This difference is tiny, and the consensus at the time would have been that it should have no practical effect. However, Lorenz discovered that small changes in initial conditions produced large changes in long-term outcome. Lorenz's discovery, which gave its name to Lorenz attractors, showed that even detailed atmospheric modeling cannot, in general, make precise long-term weather predictions.
The practical impossibility of modeling climate was demonstrated by accident over 60 years ago. I often find striking things such as this admitted in Wikipedia, but then again They know no one's looking.
Here's the pertinent paragraph from Chaos theory:
But mUh mOdElS, tho, right?
Nice reference!
It could be that one day we unravel all the mysterious inputs and develop the ability to line them all up and run logical calculations upon them.
But I expect much time will pass before those requirements are met.