You almost got all of it covered. I'll add the obvious:
Underpriced "free money" period
everything assetisable goes up in price, not in value
everything commodizable (basic goods), goes down in price, but also in value (quality)
everything is overabundant supply (too much of everything)
real non-levered businesses suffer relatively, as they don't benefit from "free money" as much as the financialized companies that produce nothing
Money priced right period (we are slowly entering it now)
everything that has been made into an investable asset, comes down in real inflation adjusted price and most in nominal price
everything that has been commodized becomes more expensive and is cut down in quantity/quality even more
everything becomes scarcer, in sporadic supply with delivery disruptions and price changes being the norm
real non-levered businesses do relatively better, but may still go bankrupt due to rising costs and less consumers coming in, while the most levered financialized institutions go illiquid and then broke first
We are at the beginning of the second period.
Fed, ECB, BoE and the rest have barely started raising rates.
Almost no central banks has actually started (in a meaningful quantity) reducing liquidity from the markets (i.e. selling their assets while NOT buying more of new assets).
When and IF central bank balance sheet reduction starts and the money starts becoming really scarce, then things get real.
That's in 2023.
We are currently flying on fumes, hopium and levered loans waiting for the Fed pivot.
You almost got all of it covered. I'll add the obvious:
Underpriced "free money" period
Money priced right period (we are slowly entering it now)
We are at the beginning of the second period.
Fed, ECB, BoE and the rest have barely started raising rates.
Almost no central banks has actually started (in a meaningful quantity) reducing liquidity from the markets (i.e. selling their assets while NOT buying more of new assets).
When and IF central bank balance sheet reduction starts and the money starts becoming really scarce, then things get real.
That's in 2023.
We are currently flying on fumes, hopium and levered loans waiting for the Fed pivot.
When is the Russian 1917 scenario coming?