It's probably a bunch of factors ike counterplay, history, and agenda.

I can only speculate like everybody else.

But it is kinda obvious. Agenda, Eeveee climate technology, counterplay contain Russia by buffer etc, history always goes back to former relationships, and territory. Of course history has changed. But there's always feuds to ignite from opposing claims and interests.

Who knows fully? Except that which is otherwise obvious.

Today there's new technology being inserted from an agenda to cause change, it causes counterplays often to contain the competition by changing methods, and history always repeats itself.

But unless you know everything there is only speculation.

Speculation today is it is getting really grim quicker. Collapse is happening, and it often forces change, and conflict is occurring. It often being the catalyst for collapse to cause change. But is it controlled as easily? Is it really that simple?

You're asking the wrong person.