Sweet Jesus. You're so keen on trying to one-up the narrative, that sometimes I think you miss what is in your face.
When I go grocery shopping, it's real as I see the numbers I'm paying out and the decrease in my bank account. Frozen chicken packages at Walmart tripled in price where I am at in the past year.
And 1970s/1980s was the last time we had 10%+ inflation, therefore it's not talking points to compare the two, especially when I fucking lived through it the first time.
Your "deflation is coming" is silly. Deflation will only happen with a deep recession or another depression.... AND....you have large scale unemployment to prevent a wage/price spiral upward, which is right where we are now.
Lastly, prices and wages, once they go up, are "sticky". They go up fast, but go down slowly. Wages in particular. Companies will usually let a certain amount of people go rather than give everyone a pay cut across the board to keep everyone employed. Any reading of economic history will tell you that.
(edit to add: If you don't respond with anything resembling an economic argument, I'm through wasting my time with you on this issue)
Saying "of course" when predicting the future implies a level of certainty that Hayek called the "pretense of knowledge". This is especially true when historical data leads us to predicts the opposite. Deflation is rare historically. Further, all government monetary policy is pushing towards inflation. Inflation is caused, at bottom, by the expansion of the money supply, which continues apace.
We agree, at least, that prices are higher with out (much) "real" growth to support them. But even if your premise is correct, that massive unemployment will lead to price cuts, like I said before prices/wages upwards are "sticky". And deflation is not price cuts, you're mixing up the technical definition of the word. Deflation is your money being worth more because of a contraction of the money supply. Price cuts for unsold inventory are not deflation, systematically.
Last point, what does government do when people are out of work in a recession? Why they do stimulus packages! They throw money at the problem, meaning that inflation will continue.
Will we be 1990s Japan? Maybe. Japan is to peaceful for an apt comparison. We will be more like 1990s Argentina with their hyperinflation.
Deflation is rare, because monetary policy is to increase the money supply. Deflation, when it does occur, is after unique circumstances, and is usually confined to one field. Farm prices in America after WWI deflated prior to the Depression, because once Europe started planting crops again, there was a glut of product. But despite the Depression, deflation didn't occur across the entire economy. Demand dropped, and so suppliers responded by producing less.
The fed exists to protect organized rich interest groups, which, coincidentally, believe in "modern monetary theory" and which want inflation to continue because of the enormous debt.
If I knew you in person, I'd bet you a steak dinner that inflation continues above 5% for another 4 years.
Sweet Jesus. You're so keen on trying to one-up the narrative, that sometimes I think you miss what is in your face.
When I go grocery shopping, it's real as I see the numbers I'm paying out and the decrease in my bank account. Frozen chicken packages at Walmart tripled in price where I am at in the past year.
And 1970s/1980s was the last time we had 10%+ inflation, therefore it's not talking points to compare the two, especially when I fucking lived through it the first time.
Your "deflation is coming" is silly. Deflation will only happen with a deep recession or another depression.... AND....you have large scale unemployment to prevent a wage/price spiral upward, which is right where we are now.
Lastly, prices and wages, once they go up, are "sticky". They go up fast, but go down slowly. Wages in particular. Companies will usually let a certain amount of people go rather than give everyone a pay cut across the board to keep everyone employed. Any reading of economic history will tell you that.
(edit to add: If you don't respond with anything resembling an economic argument, I'm through wasting my time with you on this issue)
"Of course it's going to deflate."
Saying "of course" when predicting the future implies a level of certainty that Hayek called the "pretense of knowledge". This is especially true when historical data leads us to predicts the opposite. Deflation is rare historically. Further, all government monetary policy is pushing towards inflation. Inflation is caused, at bottom, by the expansion of the money supply, which continues apace.
We agree, at least, that prices are higher with out (much) "real" growth to support them. But even if your premise is correct, that massive unemployment will lead to price cuts, like I said before prices/wages upwards are "sticky". And deflation is not price cuts, you're mixing up the technical definition of the word. Deflation is your money being worth more because of a contraction of the money supply. Price cuts for unsold inventory are not deflation, systematically.
Last point, what does government do when people are out of work in a recession? Why they do stimulus packages! They throw money at the problem, meaning that inflation will continue.
Will we be 1990s Japan? Maybe. Japan is to peaceful for an apt comparison. We will be more like 1990s Argentina with their hyperinflation.
Deflation is rare, because monetary policy is to increase the money supply. Deflation, when it does occur, is after unique circumstances, and is usually confined to one field. Farm prices in America after WWI deflated prior to the Depression, because once Europe started planting crops again, there was a glut of product. But despite the Depression, deflation didn't occur across the entire economy. Demand dropped, and so suppliers responded by producing less.
The fed exists to protect organized rich interest groups, which, coincidentally, believe in "modern monetary theory" and which want inflation to continue because of the enormous debt.
If I knew you in person, I'd bet you a steak dinner that inflation continues above 5% for another 4 years.