Saying "of course" when predicting the future implies a level of certainty that Hayek called the "pretense of knowledge". This is especially true when historical data leads us to predicts the opposite. Deflation is rare historically. Further, all government monetary policy is pushing towards inflation. Inflation is caused, at bottom, by the expansion of the money supply, which continues apace.
We agree, at least, that prices are higher with out (much) "real" growth to support them. But even if your premise is correct, that massive unemployment will lead to price cuts, like I said before prices/wages upwards are "sticky". And deflation is not price cuts, you're mixing up the technical definition of the word. Deflation is your money being worth more because of a contraction of the money supply. Price cuts for unsold inventory are not deflation, systematically.
Last point, what does government do when people are out of work in a recession? Why they do stimulus packages! They throw money at the problem, meaning that inflation will continue.
Will we be 1990s Japan? Maybe. Japan is to peaceful for an apt comparison. We will be more like 1990s Argentina with their hyperinflation.
Deflation is rare, because monetary policy is to increase the money supply. Deflation, when it does occur, is after unique circumstances, and is usually confined to one field. Farm prices in America after WWI deflated prior to the Depression, because once Europe started planting crops again, there was a glut of product. But despite the Depression, deflation didn't occur across the entire economy. Demand dropped, and so suppliers responded by producing less.
The fed exists to protect organized rich interest groups, which, coincidentally, believe in "modern monetary theory" and which want inflation to continue because of the enormous debt.
If I knew you in person, I'd bet you a steak dinner that inflation continues above 5% for another 4 years.
Inflation is always caused by an expansion of the money supply. So if by "fake and gay" you mean a result of shitty government policy, then yes, it is artificially created and not a product of the invisible hand of supply/demand.
It is still real when people's wages take time to catch up, and it causes their standards of living to decline.
School enrollments are down for a separate issue, people are pulling their kids from CRT public schools that were exposed during the scandemic. This is best explored fully as a separate topic.
Point is, while declining populations can create deflation, which is what you're getting at, the US population is NOT declining due to immigration, legal and illegal.
"Of course it's going to deflate."
Saying "of course" when predicting the future implies a level of certainty that Hayek called the "pretense of knowledge". This is especially true when historical data leads us to predicts the opposite. Deflation is rare historically. Further, all government monetary policy is pushing towards inflation. Inflation is caused, at bottom, by the expansion of the money supply, which continues apace.
We agree, at least, that prices are higher with out (much) "real" growth to support them. But even if your premise is correct, that massive unemployment will lead to price cuts, like I said before prices/wages upwards are "sticky". And deflation is not price cuts, you're mixing up the technical definition of the word. Deflation is your money being worth more because of a contraction of the money supply. Price cuts for unsold inventory are not deflation, systematically.
Last point, what does government do when people are out of work in a recession? Why they do stimulus packages! They throw money at the problem, meaning that inflation will continue.
Will we be 1990s Japan? Maybe. Japan is to peaceful for an apt comparison. We will be more like 1990s Argentina with their hyperinflation.
Deflation is rare, because monetary policy is to increase the money supply. Deflation, when it does occur, is after unique circumstances, and is usually confined to one field. Farm prices in America after WWI deflated prior to the Depression, because once Europe started planting crops again, there was a glut of product. But despite the Depression, deflation didn't occur across the entire economy. Demand dropped, and so suppliers responded by producing less.
The fed exists to protect organized rich interest groups, which, coincidentally, believe in "modern monetary theory" and which want inflation to continue because of the enormous debt.
If I knew you in person, I'd bet you a steak dinner that inflation continues above 5% for another 4 years.
Inflation is always caused by an expansion of the money supply. So if by "fake and gay" you mean a result of shitty government policy, then yes, it is artificially created and not a product of the invisible hand of supply/demand.
It is still real when people's wages take time to catch up, and it causes their standards of living to decline.
School enrollments are down for a separate issue, people are pulling their kids from CRT public schools that were exposed during the scandemic. This is best explored fully as a separate topic.
Point is, while declining populations can create deflation, which is what you're getting at, the US population is NOT declining due to immigration, legal and illegal.