Thoughts on this? I give it a week before Russia invades Moldova.
Maybe a false flag too for justification, but frankly I doubt they will even do that — if they do, I am sure it will be something relatively small scale. Probably some sort of “artillery strike” that allegedly injures a few Russians.
Quite a lengthy analysis of the complex situation here:
Ukraine, Romania, Moldova ... vs. Transnistria: A WW III Scenario
Russia doesn't work like that. That's Western propaganda.
Instead of plunging into Moldova while a much bigger immediate conflict is at hand. It could if pushed use troops from there. The same as Belarus. They could be used to hit the borders of Ukraine encircling it, cutting off Western supply lines. Or another scenario could be if the conflict gains other ground troops like Nato or Poland, it could force them into it. Why take Moldova. It could commit Nato. Instead why not use reserves. Or indeed press them towards objectives.
Theoretical but I am not entirely wrong. Bigger conflict, and it goes to nukes anyway. So they'd likely be used for the current conflict, if needed. Not creating another, destabilising into further Western response and risk losing the field, escalating into a bigger war. Although it's still possible as a diversion. But unlikely, because it commits too much to another field fighting on multiple fronts instead of taking objectives.
But who knows and who cares. It really doesn't matter much the way this conflict is escalating.
Please go back to Reddit with the rest of the chimps. Reddit has become the Planet's asshole nothing but bullshit comes out of it.
Logic first propaganda later. They have that region. It's not going anywhere. If by using it. Why exhaust the current objective. They could be pressed than it's either a diversion, escalation, or for the current objective. Take your pick.
I’ll circle back to you once Russia invades Moldova.
You won't. There's a larger objective. It requires immediate attention. If they do. It's because they're pressed. It could mean them applying for more immediate Nato membership or having Nato arms supplied to it. Or its separatist region under direct attack. Logically. Not dumb Ukrainian propaganda screaming for direct war.
There's still perhaps the diversion. Where yeah. Why not put mobile ballistic launchers in it? Because it could lead to direct war. It's chess still. Piece for piece into positions of play to win the objective or checking an enemy into terms. The breakaway region in Moldova isn't going anywhere. What gain is Moldova if it presses them into further unrest, potentially unleashing Nato. It would be nukes. They can still gain what they want before then. It was objectively parts of the Ukraine. Or ask them.
But logically what is it, if you're playing that board what would you do. You'd be launching nukes already. Instead of actually playing strategy. It seeks gain not complete loss.
Reiterate why you'd open another flank, prior to any other escalation? Instead you'd use any flank to gain objectives if required. Right?
Now go back to bullshit school. Again they could roll over on Moldova. But wouldn't it flare up while they're in active war. Nato fasters backdoors every citizen with brand new zingers. They haven't even got a land supply route to it, outside of the sea or air. Hmm let me think. Bombs away. No, fucko, plenty of game before then.