Why would there be immediately? The danger is in escalation. Where undoubtedly warcrimes will come up again and again as more positions become overrun. Further arms shipments being hit, will provoke further narratives and increase in any response. It's from escalation that the risk becomes greater and increases. Suggesively advances halted, urban conflict increasing. But currently there is far more warfare to be had and gains to be made. However the longer conflict drags out that risk increases as both sides force the other hand. Peace deals are no where near being reached, they both want what the other refuses.

Aside there is continued probability into the future ahead, where as this year drags on, it's a cauldron of growing uncertainty from a number of events and places flaring by increasing in unrest.

Ukraine if by being a NATO candidate, could see troops roll in, even as a potential. Where regardless of terms will see a build up. Prior it could mean no coastline, otherwise it would be back to square one, build up increasing, or from forcing its surrender. How indeed? Something will often have to break first. Objectively not on the horizon, there's only conflict. And the pig in the middle.