It could end with nukes much sooner. At the going rates of escalation. Nothing would surprise me.
Besides if it goes worse more proxies will flare.
If you think nukes are off the cards. Russia has that approval for use in the Ukraine. It might be a later resort.
Could Russia chance it, remains a bigger question. How would Nato react if nukes are deployed to a localised conflict? They are massively arming with their troops partially involved. In probabilty it escalates. But it has. Therefore further escalation remains inevitable.
Of course there are peace deals but these aren't favourable to either. What happens. Russia won't withdraw from the Crimea, and the Separatist republics. If pressed pulls the trigger. Ukraine won't ceed them either.
Not if Nato keeps supplying more weapons and starts inserting more troops. Weapons like German tanks, and more advanced mobile artillery units, it might not give F16s, but other nations are sooner supplying older Soviet MiGs, but it is supplying drones, and these might become more advanced. It is increasing in foreign troops, some nations are even committing their special ops.
Russia can win certain objectives, undoubtedly.
But it's back to square one if it escalates further. Because if Russia fully wins the contested regions, and then it wants a peace deal. But why would Ukraine reach it. It keeps getting armed. What peace deal will lose its coastline. Meanwhile Odesa is faster being reinforced. Regions claimed are under attack and in resistance. But bigger losses commit more Nato. Look at that outcry, daily calling on warcrimes, on support, on whatever.
A few nations are also at that point. The longer this plays out. War could even save their face. Otherwise that witch's cauldron brewing, bubbling, and stewing of austerity and protest and hyper inflation will sooner start to catch up. Into you tell me?
The latest from Russia, it will directly attack any new armaments, and possibly even the foreign troops deploying and supplying. Tanks get supplied along with mobile artillery etc, guns, arms, and drones. These get hit. Doesn't it escalate.
The war was inevitable. How it finishes still remains questionable. But it's not going to be over soon. Unless nukes are deployed before then. That risk is quite real.
I could add strategies, where 1000s of Nato troops have been readied to enter. Outside of a number of clandestine operating already. But there's no point currently. Suggesting the war will be over soon is dubious. How it progresses can only escalate.
It could end with nukes much sooner. At the going rates of escalation. Nothing would surprise me.
Besides if it goes worse more proxies will flare.
If you think nukes are off the cards. Russia has that approval for use in the Ukraine. It might be a later resort.
Could Russia chance it, remains a bigger question. How would Nato react if nukes are deployed to a localised conflict? They are massively arming with their troops partially involved. In probabilty it escalates. But it has. Therefore further escalation remains inevitable.
Of course there are peace deals but these aren't favourable to either. What happens. Russia won't withdraw from the Crimea, and the Separatist republics. If pressed pulls the trigger. Ukraine won't ceed them either.
Reiterate what happens?
Not if Nato keeps supplying more weapons and starts inserting more troops. Weapons like German tanks, and more advanced mobile artillery units, it might not give F16s, but other nations are sooner supplying older Soviet MiGs, but it is supplying drones, and these might become more advanced. It is increasing in foreign troops, some nations are even committing their special ops.
Russia can win certain objectives, undoubtedly.
But it's back to square one if it escalates further. Because if Russia fully wins the contested regions, and then it wants a peace deal. But why would Ukraine reach it. It keeps getting armed. What peace deal will lose its coastline. Meanwhile Odesa is faster being reinforced. Regions claimed are under attack and in resistance. But bigger losses commit more Nato. Look at that outcry, daily calling on warcrimes, on support, on whatever.
A few nations are also at that point. The longer this plays out. War could even save their face. Otherwise that witch's cauldron brewing, bubbling, and stewing of austerity and protest and hyper inflation will sooner start to catch up. Into you tell me?
The latest from Russia, it will directly attack any new armaments, and possibly even the foreign troops deploying and supplying. Tanks get supplied along with mobile artillery etc, guns, arms, and drones. These get hit. Doesn't it escalate.
The war was inevitable. How it finishes still remains questionable. But it's not going to be over soon. Unless nukes are deployed before then. That risk is quite real.
https://quemadoinstitute.org/2017/08/18/new-us-naval-base-on-ukraines-black-sea-coast/
https://en.usm.media/two-naval-bases-are-being-built-in-ukraine-at-once/
https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-trending/us-navy-seals-are-training-with-ukrainian-special-operations-forces/
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/15/tanks-heavy-weapons-ukraine-russia-nato-putin-offensive/
https://eurasiantimes.com/us-could-now-supply-its-most-lethal-attack-drones-to-ukraine/?amp
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/04/for-first-time-ukraine-to-get-us-artillery-in-new-800m-weapons-package/
https://www.hsmilitary.com/2022/02/UK-donates-100-cruise-missiles-to-Ukraine.html?m=1
https://m.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/russia-ukraine-war-british-sas-troops-train-ukrainian-soldiers-as-war-continues-on-day-52-articleshow.html
This press hasn't even scratched that surface.
Simple probability. Using the above. What's in there, as arm sales increase.
Simple probability of what escalation means? How likely will nukes be deployed?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/26/russia-reasserts-right-to-use-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine-putin
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-us-nato-weapon-transports-ukraine-are-legitimate-targets-2022-04-13/
I could add strategies, where 1000s of Nato troops have been readied to enter. Outside of a number of clandestine operating already. But there's no point currently. Suggesting the war will be over soon is dubious. How it progresses can only escalate.