Technical default is not the same as usual default.
technical default: You own somebody $100. You have them and want to pay. But the recipient of your payment deny it and then say that it is you who didn't pay him debt.
regular default: You own somebody $100. You don't have them. Recipient does not receive them and say you didn't pay him debt.
Thing named "technical default" is the favorite trick of racketeers and usurers. They wait for the day of payments, and when the victim bring the money, he discovers that racketeer or usurer is absent or somehow can't take victims money for whatever reason. Later, criminal suddenly appear and blame victim for delay of payment, so victim now have to pay additional interest rate and huge penalty for that delay.
As for the situation with Russia, that "technical default" is do more harm for the payment receivers (investors, banks, all of them) than for those who have to pay. It does not even destroy credibility of Russia for any sane person, it destroys credibility of the West. Say, India or some other country will look at that and hardly will want to have a deal with investors or states who could at any time do that shitty racketeer trick with them. Why would they want to have a deal with such unsafe partners?
All that stupid sanctions, really, do much more harm to the West, than to Russia. And that is obviously intentional. Interesting, that West even already drop sanctions that could occasionally really harm Russia a little - the US government recently allowed selling high-speed communication and IT equipment to Russia, f.e..
So, sanctions West apply to Russia harm West population, not Russians, I.e. West do exactly what was tested by NWO in Russia previously. Russians use meme "we will bomb Voronezh to sanction West", i.e.do harm to its own citizens in own town as a punishment for foreing state. That was done numerous times from "sanctioning western food and goods" to "censorship of foreign MSM" as a reply to some anti-Russia actions of the West.. Now West do exactly the same, since NWO tested and approved that technology. The difference only in that Russians don't give a fuck to government bans and continue to trade and use banned things, but West public much more obedient to state laws and bans and will follow them even if they will suffer. It was clearly visible, f.e. during coronahoax lockdowns. Both West and Russia had them, but in Russia most people don't give a fuck to that shit, unlike Western people who mostly obey under the fear of large penalies or arrests.
All that stupid sanctions, really, do much more harm to the West, than to Russia. And that is obviously intentional.
Pretty much. The question is - to what end? Sure enough, Russia is already increasing raw resource trade with China and India, though I'm not sure what's the situation with consumer goods. I wouldn't be surprised if Chinese manufacturers of ostensibly western brands, have simply ignored the ban on exports to Russian outlets. Overall, I'm not expecting a major shakeup on Russian markets.
In the west, however, there's already talk of goods shortages, from wheat to sunflower oil. I suspect this precipitates a planned restructuring of the economy - an expansion of mining and farming jobs, in order to achieve at least some self-sufficiency for the EU and certain NATO countries. After all, oligarchs like Bill Gates have been buying up farmland like there's no tomorrow, and they tend to be pretty good bellwethers in that regard. And wouldn't you know it - the past decade saw an influx of unskilled migrants, good for just this sort of thing. Amazing coincidence, I know.
Altogether, this whole conflict seems to function like a not-quite-amicable economic divorce - an unsurprising, likely even necessary measure after the financial crisis that marked the past decade.
Russia is already increasing raw resource trade with China and India,
Seems so. At least they announce new contracts an deals.
though I'm not sure what's the situation with consumer goods.
That is interesting. Say, I like good tools. I will never deny buying some wrench set from Snap-on or a good drill from DeWalt. But everything I could find from solid brands known in the past as reliable and cool tools is made in China. You will not find anything made in USA or Germany anymore.
From the other side, if you buy a obvious China noname tool in closest hardware store, it will be complete shit.
But if you take sometime and search for that tools on aliexpress, f.e. you could find a pretty decent stuff like hand drills with steel gears reliable motors and damn good ergonomics. It will not be cheap as usual China noname crap, but it will not be as expensive as Western brands made in China. You will even don't find any latin labels on the tools, but it will be definitely not worse than modern tools by known brands.
The same thing is with other consumer product. If you are buying things, not brand labels you don't really need Western stuff that will be made in China too.
I wouldn't be surprised if Chinese manufacturers of ostensibly western brands, have simply ignored the ban on exports to Russian outlets.
They now do better. Say, not very expensive DeWalt hand drill have plastic gears and PVC cord, as specified by DeWalt, but Chineese do nearly same model with minor changes in outlook, but with metal gears and rubber cord (rubber does not harden in cold as much as PVC), just like DeWalt do few decades ago. And sell that for the price sligtly lower than that DeWalt drill. I don't know, may be such goods that made like oldstyle brand ones is restricted in the West due to corporations lobby, patents or other stuff, but here you could buy them without limitations.
Overall, I'm not expecting a major shakeup on Russian markets.
If Russia was allowed to develop high tech, that shakeup would have been possible. Yes, there will be problems with spare parts for heavy Western factory equipment, but that will not be critical. Factories will just began make that parts for themselves, not giving a fuck to any warranty or patents or order them in China/India. Again, Western companies will lose significant money they earn on spare parts and service, and that's all. And that could cause a reborn of heavy machinery repair industry in Russia, so that Western companies will never get back to that business.
Intersting that USA already dropped sanctions on telecom equipment for Russia. The rare thing that could really noticeable harm Russian telecom industry, since most plaers in telecom still prefer Western equipment and don't like that Huawei and other Chineese stuff.
So, as you mention
Altogether, this whole conflict seems to function like a not-quite-amicable economic divorce - an unsurprising, likely even necessary measure after the financial crisis that marked the past decade.
Yep. It is all stacking one by one in the attempt to create that crisis. And seems that it is not a real divorce, it looks like fake divorce for public to achieve some murky goals but in completely controlled manner.
I agree on the matter of Chinese-made goods. From my interactions with Chinese expats, it appears there are two tiers of Chinese goods - the cheap crap sold for decades to foreign companies, and the decent and still affordable stuff meant for local use, which is now expanding abroad. So in that regard, the manufactured goods markets in its major trading partners wouldn't be severely affected. And vice versa, the growing economies of both China and India will be more than happy to welcome the excess Russian gas if the import restrictions of the EU become permanent. And the overall global economy seems to hold up for another day... for now.
Russian factories don't have the capacity or know-how to produce everything they import from the West.
Everything is not necessary to continue to use Western equipment. Only things that wear. And it is not a rocket science at all.
If it was as easy as "just begin making the parts for themselves", every country would just do it.
It was easier to pay than to make. That is why machinig industry in Russia degraded. Now it could be restored. It is even better than to pay again. Self-sufficiency is a cool thing, if you are not aware. On any level, from personal to country.
Do you know that Earth is absolutely self-sufficient? Account that like some Galaxy government totally sanctioned Earth. Not great, but definitely not an end of life.
Technical default is not the same as usual default.
technical default: You own somebody $100. You have them and want to pay. But the recipient of your payment deny it and then say that it is you who didn't pay him debt.
regular default: You own somebody $100. You don't have them. Recipient does not receive them and say you didn't pay him debt.
Thing named "technical default" is the favorite trick of racketeers and usurers. They wait for the day of payments, and when the victim bring the money, he discovers that racketeer or usurer is absent or somehow can't take victims money for whatever reason. Later, criminal suddenly appear and blame victim for delay of payment, so victim now have to pay additional interest rate and huge penalty for that delay.
As for the situation with Russia, that "technical default" is do more harm for the payment receivers (investors, banks, all of them) than for those who have to pay. It does not even destroy credibility of Russia for any sane person, it destroys credibility of the West. Say, India or some other country will look at that and hardly will want to have a deal with investors or states who could at any time do that shitty racketeer trick with them. Why would they want to have a deal with such unsafe partners?
All that stupid sanctions, really, do much more harm to the West, than to Russia. And that is obviously intentional. Interesting, that West even already drop sanctions that could occasionally really harm Russia a little - the US government recently allowed selling high-speed communication and IT equipment to Russia, f.e..
So, sanctions West apply to Russia harm West population, not Russians, I.e. West do exactly what was tested by NWO in Russia previously. Russians use meme "we will bomb Voronezh to sanction West", i.e.do harm to its own citizens in own town as a punishment for foreing state. That was done numerous times from "sanctioning western food and goods" to "censorship of foreign MSM" as a reply to some anti-Russia actions of the West.. Now West do exactly the same, since NWO tested and approved that technology. The difference only in that Russians don't give a fuck to government bans and continue to trade and use banned things, but West public much more obedient to state laws and bans and will follow them even if they will suffer. It was clearly visible, f.e. during coronahoax lockdowns. Both West and Russia had them, but in Russia most people don't give a fuck to that shit, unlike Western people who mostly obey under the fear of large penalies or arrests.
Pretty much. The question is - to what end? Sure enough, Russia is already increasing raw resource trade with China and India, though I'm not sure what's the situation with consumer goods. I wouldn't be surprised if Chinese manufacturers of ostensibly western brands, have simply ignored the ban on exports to Russian outlets. Overall, I'm not expecting a major shakeup on Russian markets.
In the west, however, there's already talk of goods shortages, from wheat to sunflower oil. I suspect this precipitates a planned restructuring of the economy - an expansion of mining and farming jobs, in order to achieve at least some self-sufficiency for the EU and certain NATO countries. After all, oligarchs like Bill Gates have been buying up farmland like there's no tomorrow, and they tend to be pretty good bellwethers in that regard. And wouldn't you know it - the past decade saw an influx of unskilled migrants, good for just this sort of thing. Amazing coincidence, I know.
Altogether, this whole conflict seems to function like a not-quite-amicable economic divorce - an unsurprising, likely even necessary measure after the financial crisis that marked the past decade.
Seems so. At least they announce new contracts an deals.
That is interesting. Say, I like good tools. I will never deny buying some wrench set from Snap-on or a good drill from DeWalt. But everything I could find from solid brands known in the past as reliable and cool tools is made in China. You will not find anything made in USA or Germany anymore. From the other side, if you buy a obvious China noname tool in closest hardware store, it will be complete shit. But if you take sometime and search for that tools on aliexpress, f.e. you could find a pretty decent stuff like hand drills with steel gears reliable motors and damn good ergonomics. It will not be cheap as usual China noname crap, but it will not be as expensive as Western brands made in China. You will even don't find any latin labels on the tools, but it will be definitely not worse than modern tools by known brands.
The same thing is with other consumer product. If you are buying things, not brand labels you don't really need Western stuff that will be made in China too.
They now do better. Say, not very expensive DeWalt hand drill have plastic gears and PVC cord, as specified by DeWalt, but Chineese do nearly same model with minor changes in outlook, but with metal gears and rubber cord (rubber does not harden in cold as much as PVC), just like DeWalt do few decades ago. And sell that for the price sligtly lower than that DeWalt drill. I don't know, may be such goods that made like oldstyle brand ones is restricted in the West due to corporations lobby, patents or other stuff, but here you could buy them without limitations.
If Russia was allowed to develop high tech, that shakeup would have been possible. Yes, there will be problems with spare parts for heavy Western factory equipment, but that will not be critical. Factories will just began make that parts for themselves, not giving a fuck to any warranty or patents or order them in China/India. Again, Western companies will lose significant money they earn on spare parts and service, and that's all. And that could cause a reborn of heavy machinery repair industry in Russia, so that Western companies will never get back to that business.
Intersting that USA already dropped sanctions on telecom equipment for Russia. The rare thing that could really noticeable harm Russian telecom industry, since most plaers in telecom still prefer Western equipment and don't like that Huawei and other Chineese stuff.
So, as you mention
Yep. It is all stacking one by one in the attempt to create that crisis. And seems that it is not a real divorce, it looks like fake divorce for public to achieve some murky goals but in completely controlled manner.
I agree on the matter of Chinese-made goods. From my interactions with Chinese expats, it appears there are two tiers of Chinese goods - the cheap crap sold for decades to foreign companies, and the decent and still affordable stuff meant for local use, which is now expanding abroad. So in that regard, the manufactured goods markets in its major trading partners wouldn't be severely affected. And vice versa, the growing economies of both China and India will be more than happy to welcome the excess Russian gas if the import restrictions of the EU become permanent. And the overall global economy seems to hold up for another day... for now.
Everything is not necessary to continue to use Western equipment. Only things that wear. And it is not a rocket science at all.
It was easier to pay than to make. That is why machinig industry in Russia degraded. Now it could be restored. It is even better than to pay again. Self-sufficiency is a cool thing, if you are not aware. On any level, from personal to country.
Do you know that Earth is absolutely self-sufficient? Account that like some Galaxy government totally sanctioned Earth. Not great, but definitely not an end of life.