Extrapolating from animal models and from uptake of injections worldwide, we should start seeing this en masse by the fall of 2022 roughly (the beginning of it anyway).
Could you possibly provide a general sketch as to how you're arriving at this timeframe? Not debating you, genuinely curious.
If I remember correctly it can take decades from the time you eat beef contaminated with prions before you start to become symptomatic. Maybe a certain percentage will be symptomatic more quickly?
Extrapolating from animal models and from uptake of injections worldwide, we should start seeing this en masse by the fall of 2022 roughly (the beginning of it anyway).
Could you possibly provide a general sketch as to how you're arriving at this timeframe? Not debating you, genuinely curious.
If I remember correctly it can take decades from the time you eat beef contaminated with prions before you start to become symptomatic. Maybe a certain percentage will be symptomatic more quickly?
https://prions.rip/prions-are-coming/
https://www.pnas.org/content/116/39/19727
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fneur.2017.00092/full
= lower bound for onset and diagnosis (at earliest 161d x 4.3 / 365 * 12 23 months): 1yr 11months. So in late fall of 2022
Upper bound for estimation is much higher, could be years (4.5 - 7.4 yrs).
This is just a very crude back of the envelope estimation. Going from animal models to human time is very crude and may not work at all.