Could you possibly provide a general sketch as to how you're arriving at this timeframe? Not debating you, genuinely curious.
If I remember correctly it can take decades from the time you eat beef contaminated with prions before you start to become symptomatic. Maybe a certain percentage will be symptomatic more quickly?
Could you possibly provide a general sketch as to how you're arriving at this timeframe? Not debating you, genuinely curious.
If I remember correctly it can take decades from the time you eat beef contaminated with prions before you start to become symptomatic. Maybe a certain percentage will be symptomatic more quickly?
https://prions.rip/prions-are-coming/
https://www.pnas.org/content/116/39/19727
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fneur.2017.00092/full
= lower bound for onset and diagnosis (at earliest 161d x 4.3 / 365 * 12 23 months): 1yr 11months. So in late fall of 2022
Upper bound for estimation is much higher, could be years (4.5 - 7.4 yrs).
This is just a very crude back of the envelope estimation. Going from animal models to human time is very crude and may not work at all.