I don't know where you live...but everything is going up massively....
Food is going up across the board (they are doing it the classic way - raise prices and have an Instant price savings that shows you are paying less (til the sale ends and then the price is higher)
Gas is way!!! Up.
Clothes are about to skyrocket....
And good luck finding quality electronics for anything performance grade or industrial....
Again. I see inflation everywhere. Even the houses....
Chicken is up to. 6.99/lb here. Looking at receipts from 6 months ago it was 3.99. The cost of an apartment here at my complex has gone up 700/mo in 3 years. Prices are rising stupid fast where I live.
Price increases are increases regardless what a YouTube economist or crystal ball gazer prognosticates. More money chasing the same goods or restricted goods explains plenty. Trump and Biden "gave" me and most people I know thousands each. Even sent letters bragging about it. Some of my friends got paid more not to work than work. All inflationary policy.
Arise in the CUP doesn't hinge on bank lending posture. No snark fellow Pede, but are you buying things? Have you not noticed increases in our we all over the place???
Trump and Biden gave most Americans stimulus checks and benefits for not working. Your take on monetary policy is fine except insofar as it distorts actual history and the dramatic RISE in prices of most goods (INFLATION). 500 hours of YouTube videos won't change the actual rise in prices.
I'm convinced this inflation is purely a result of supply constraints and not print. The central governments did give people cash... but it only, in my oppinion, countered the deflationary pressures of lockdowns.
Pair this with lower workforce participation, sky high debt, and soon to be tapering, look out.
Inflation doesn't involve real growth except in the cases where an economy starts getting overheated. We are seeing more money chasing the same supply of constrained supply. Poor energy policy, labor constraints to gov meddling etc.. Did you not get any any stimulus checks? The magic money conjured out of thin air multiple times?
Inflation needs to happen first before deflation can take over. This is because there’s too much momentum. Look at weimer. We’re actually in hyper inflation right now imo. They are desperately using lockdowns and supply bottlenecks to prevent price discovery from occurring.
Deflation has to win longterm too many forces pushing on it:
I think we have to focus macro to get predictive due to complexity. Case study: lumber prices. They shot up and collapsed due to transit issues. At the time all the excuses were noise: first fires, climate change, trump tariffs, etc. it only matters if quantity demanded marches supply and if it doesn’t then either price or timelines have to change. Both occurred: increased delays and 4-6x prices. Long term the scarcity effect takes over and causes reduction in velocity and then deflation.
Also: just because prices go up does not mean total revenue increases. Prices going up is inflation. Revenue going up is growth. Inflation can exceed growth ie hyper inflate
I've heard the deflationary velocity argument.
The Fed's can't even keep their messaging straight: treasury said inflation was being caused by the unquaxed, while Jen said it was b/c people were buying more items.
Certain goods are under different pressures, mainly oil, energy, food, land in certain markets. Some of it manufactured like the TP shortage operation invoked by 4th estaters to test their marketing power.
What money moves would the deflationary model want to make.
I don't know where you live...but everything is going up massively....
Food is going up across the board (they are doing it the classic way - raise prices and have an Instant price savings that shows you are paying less (til the sale ends and then the price is higher)
Gas is way!!! Up.
Clothes are about to skyrocket....
And good luck finding quality electronics for anything performance grade or industrial....
Again. I see inflation everywhere. Even the houses....
Chicken is up to. 6.99/lb here. Looking at receipts from 6 months ago it was 3.99. The cost of an apartment here at my complex has gone up 700/mo in 3 years. Prices are rising stupid fast where I live.
You dont need to belive just go look.
Btwm to add to my other comment. Inflation is not just for printing money....it is when the cost of goods outpaces the the wages....
If investors decide to pull their money from residential housing I suspect we'll see a 2006 on steroids.
Price increases are increases regardless what a YouTube economist or crystal ball gazer prognosticates. More money chasing the same goods or restricted goods explains plenty. Trump and Biden "gave" me and most people I know thousands each. Even sent letters bragging about it. Some of my friends got paid more not to work than work. All inflationary policy.
I don't know why you think big banks aren't giving out loans. They're loaning out big money left and right.
They also ditched fractional reserve banking for fictional reserves during the lockdown.
The supply shortages are also manufactured they're holding supply chains hostage to ransom for vaccine compliance.
Arise in the CUP doesn't hinge on bank lending posture. No snark fellow Pede, but are you buying things? Have you not noticed increases in our we all over the place???
Trump and Biden gave most Americans stimulus checks and benefits for not working. Your take on monetary policy is fine except insofar as it distorts actual history and the dramatic RISE in prices of most goods (INFLATION). 500 hours of YouTube videos won't change the actual rise in prices.
I'm convinced this inflation is purely a result of supply constraints and not print. The central governments did give people cash... but it only, in my oppinion, countered the deflationary pressures of lockdowns.
Pair this with lower workforce participation, sky high debt, and soon to be tapering, look out.
Check the bond market for reality.
Inflation doesn't involve real growth except in the cases where an economy starts getting overheated. We are seeing more money chasing the same supply of constrained supply. Poor energy policy, labor constraints to gov meddling etc.. Did you not get any any stimulus checks? The magic money conjured out of thin air multiple times?
Food? Energy? Shelter? These aren't penny stocks in a pump and dump, but basics of civilization
I am 100% against inflationary policy. Discourages saving and hurts the poor most.
Inflation first, then deflation.
What if the mass die off scenario happens? Don't want it, but it would create legendary deflation.
If only it weren't for the skyrocketing prices everywhere...
If anything we're seeing stealth hyperinflation.
Inflation needs to happen first before deflation can take over. This is because there’s too much momentum. Look at weimer. We’re actually in hyper inflation right now imo. They are desperately using lockdowns and supply bottlenecks to prevent price discovery from occurring.
Deflation has to win longterm too many forces pushing on it:
I think we have to focus macro to get predictive due to complexity. Case study: lumber prices. They shot up and collapsed due to transit issues. At the time all the excuses were noise: first fires, climate change, trump tariffs, etc. it only matters if quantity demanded marches supply and if it doesn’t then either price or timelines have to change. Both occurred: increased delays and 4-6x prices. Long term the scarcity effect takes over and causes reduction in velocity and then deflation.
I think equities keep marching up until Dec
Also: just because prices go up does not mean total revenue increases. Prices going up is inflation. Revenue going up is growth. Inflation can exceed growth ie hyper inflate
I've heard the deflationary velocity argument.
The Fed's can't even keep their messaging straight: treasury said inflation was being caused by the unquaxed, while Jen said it was b/c people were buying more items.
Certain goods are under different pressures, mainly oil, energy, food, land in certain markets. Some of it manufactured like the TP shortage operation invoked by 4th estaters to test their marketing power.
What money moves would the deflationary model want to make.