I think we have to focus macro to get predictive due to complexity. Case study: lumber prices. They shot up and collapsed due to transit issues. At the time all the excuses were noise: first fires, climate change, trump tariffs, etc. it only matters if quantity demanded marches supply and if it doesn’t then either price or timelines have to change. Both occurred: increased delays and 4-6x prices. Long term the scarcity effect takes over and causes reduction in velocity and then deflation.