Does it mean literally all internet will be shut down? How can that even happen?
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So, to be clear, as you seem pretty knowledgeable about this all, you think that a total black-out is more probable than not, right?
It's an interesting question people have pondered all along.
It would probably take Co-ordination of Nations to black out the whole thing.
That seems the least likely outcome.
More like blocks of countries would be disconnected from each other but their internal networks keep functioning.
Russia recently tested a total disconnect from the Global Internet to test their resilience from that attack vector.
https://www.nationalsecurity.news/2021-07-28-russia-successfully-disconnects-itself-from-global-internet.html
As you might imagine, the state has their own separate cable network disconnected from the Internet too. Or at least I know about the UK's Police Network as I used to do a bit of IT support in a local police station, I presume it is still the same. Some police have two computers on their desk, one connected to each system.
Private networks also exist, both commercial and hobby.
FidoNet, for instance, is an independent network of volunteers providing non-Internet based communications
https://www.fidonet.org/
So, it depends on who is doing the blacking out and why.