Yeah definitely agree. That's the error where they're omitting January 2020, right?

Btw, totally respect your perspective and efforts on this. Just disagreeing intellectually. We're on the same side though. :)

I did this sort of genetics work a long time ago, but this is what I'm seeing based on the WHO protocol and the kits 1 2 they say to use.

The testing protocol assumes that no human DNA is present in the sample before running the final amplification/detection process. If intact human DNA (from a random human cell or free-floating) is present, then you will get a false COVID positive. Theoretically, if you removed all human DNA from the sample, the the test should be legit.

The first step of the WHO protocol (using "Kit Extraction NucleoSpin Dx Virus") is meant to eliminate all human cell/DNA contamination through a "NucleoSpin gDNA Removal Column" which is basically like a filter that pulls out everything that's not RNA.

The big problem with that is that no procedure is ever 100% efficient. Maybe sometimes you luck out and no DNA molecules get through, but most of the time there will be some contamination. This is why they refer to output as "high quality" output and not "perfect output".

On top to that, kits are faulty and technicians do fuck things up. When I was in the lab, purification screw ups were not unusual. Some people were better at it than others. Kits do help, but again, nothing is infallible.

Now, if even one molecule of the relevant human DNA gets through the process, it will end up being amplified through the final PCR process, and this may be a huge source of the false positives we're seeing. It probably won't happen all the time, but that's why the test isn't ringing the bell on all test samples.

To sum up:

WHO protocol

1. Obtain human tissue/fluid sample by swabbing.
2. Remove human cells/DNA from sample using a filter column.
3. Assume sample contains only RNA.
4. Transcribe RNA to cDNA using kit.
5. Amplify cDNA using PCR with appropriate primers and detect with probes.

The main point of failure here is steps 2 and 3. If a single molecule of that human chromosome 8 makes it through the filter step (or contamination occurs later), you will get a false positive. Won't happen all the time, but that's why the test doesn't appear to be totally fraudulent.

Nobody you say?

https://conspiracies.win/p/11R4ufq4FG/no-bullshit-analysis-of-covid-de/

Not OP, but the answer to your question is that the CDC is intentionally skewing their analysis. January in all non-2020 years has a much higher weekly death count due to flu season. And 2020 is a strange year because we didn't hit a huge flu death peak in January.

By leaving January out, they can make the death counts for other years look lower while focusing on the worst part of 2020 which peaks in April.

I've spent enough time looking at infuriatingly obtuse CDC data presentations to know that they're making things hard to understand on purpose.

I'm going to fight you on this whenever you bring it up. Your analysis is wrong because you're only tallying the first 47 weeks of each year.

Graphs of weekly death counts for each year -- except for 2020 -- are "U" shaped, meaning that most deaths occur in the first and last weeks of the year. By looking at up to week 47 only, you're leaving out a sizeable portion of deaths which makes 2020 seem much worse than it is.

2020 does not have the weekly death distribution as other years, and this is becoming more obvious as the year is wrapping up.

I err on the side of believing you because I've also seen weird stuff but don't have evidence to back it up, but honest question...if you knew you'd probably catch sight of something, why not have a camera ready? Or do you have pics?

Is that how Titan got all its oil?

https://www.space.com/4968-titan-oil-earth.html

It absolutely is not up 200k this year. People are getting that number through some erroneous assumptions.

Here is my post laying out all the numbers:

https://conspiracies.win/p/11R4ufq4FG/no-bullshit-analysis-of-covid-de/

Replied to your other comment, and yeah I mistakenly assumed you were running the flu numbers from that data set. (I blame the CDC's awful data presentation practices.)

Anyway, point 2 is the main issue.

We should both take a look when more numbers come out. My guess is that the gap will narrow. It'll probably be something like 100-150k over 2019. But even if it grows to 300k+ we still have to keep in mind that that represents an excess 0.1% of the total population that died.

Sorry, some confusion because the CDC shows data in the most infuriatingly obfuscating manner possible, and when I see a data set listed as flu/pneumonia deaths I assume the data is about flu/pneumonia deaths.

Anyway, your numbers do show the total deaths, but as I said, these would be underreported not-2020 years because a good portion of flu deaths occur in the last weeks of the year in normal years.

It's an misleading conclusion to claim that we're at 300,000+ more deaths this year especially because there is apparently no flu season in 2020. Right now our count is about 70k above 2019's total.

We really need to wait for the end of this year though to see the final numbers.

FOX pretty much showed their hand on election night, and it was obvious in the following week. Political preferences aside, it was clear that they were calling Biden far in advance of any point of determination.

What's weird is that it seems like people are already forgetting that FOX is a proven propaganda outlet.

Cool, so these are my thoughts...

The data you're pulling tallies pneumonia/influenza deaths. There are some problems when 2020 is factored in.

1. I have doubts on how the CDC or health systems are categorizing "flu/pneumonia deaths". Are they lumping all "COVID positive" deaths in there, even the ones where people died of other causes? This categorization is a point for data manipulation, and that's why I think total deaths from all causes shows a better, less potentially skewed picture.

2. By tallying years only until week 47, this leaves out a large chunk of flu season deaths from previous years. As shown in my graphs, 2020 does not have the same death distribution as any other year. Tallying up to week 47 only will make it seem that previous years were not as bad as they were while looking at the worst part of 2020.

3. Running the numbers like you and the CDC did, you arrive at 300,000+ excess flu/pneumonia deaths, but looking at all reported deaths so far, there are only about 70,000 more deaths than 2019. This is within previously seen yearly variations. One would think that if the CDC were being "honest" with their analysis, you would not see such an obviously inflated number. How could there be 300,000 more flu deaths when only 70,000 more people total have died in 2020 compared to 2019?

Of course, the rest of 2020's death count needs to come in before saying anything for sure, but it looks like we may come in within historical variation or maybe slightly above it...but nothing like the world ending calamity the MSM has been making it out to be.

IIRC, that study processes the data to look at the percentage distribution of causes of deaths among total deaths, so it's not looking at how many people died, but rather if the proportions seem off.

To reach its conclusions, there were a some assumptions made about how things are supposed to look, so while it's intriguing, there are many way a skeptic could explain away the conclusions.

Here's my post that analyzes the death counts from 2020 and previous years.

People have been saying 2020's death counts is "300,000" higher than in the past, but that's just a projection.

It's also more complicated than just saying there are more or less deaths this year because the death count and death percentage/population has been increasing every year since 2009.

Anyway just check out the post:

https://thedonald.win/p/11R4uek9Z8/no-bullshit-analysis-of-covid-de/c/

I messaged the mods about it a few days ago. I assume the .win sites use one mail system for your one account. When you look into your mail, the system assumes all content is from the site you're currently looking in from. So far there isn't a mechanism to tell the mail that some content is from a different .win.

Look up the Curse of the Presidents. Supposedly when there's a Great Conjunction, the POTUS dies in office. But this trend was broken by Reagan and hasn't happened since.

Astrologically, Jupiter and Saturn could be said to represent God and Satan. Their coming together, on the winter solstice no less, could be seen as the marker for a turn from evil towards good or from dark into light.

666. The star and the cube. So many coincidences.

That's like claiming a dog is the world's best chef.

Or like claiming a woman is a man?

I'm cross-posting this from theDonald since I think it'll interest both communities.

This is a couple of days of me processing the most recent CDC data on total US deaths into graphs and some basic companion analysis.

My intent is to cut through the bullshit of "excess deaths" that is always being reported. Here you can see the raw data and associated trends represented clearly without superfluous statistical manipulations.

I tried to keep my own judgements about the data to a minimum, so you can draw your own conclusions based on what you see.

She's lying. A lot of downward glances when "recalling" her fabricated medical history and when asked if she regrets taking the vaccine.

They probably told her that she'll save thousands of lives if she pretends everything is normal.

So now it's not just getting penalized for saying the wrong thing, you'll be penalized for looking at the wrong thing.

This all boils down to the crime and sin of usury. By borrowing money from someone else, you give them power over you. By creating a society dependent on usury, the lenders gain power over the society.

We all need to stop living on credit.

Hypothetically speaking...if Jesus is truly God made flesh on Earth, and Jewish groups are going around trying to convince others that He is not God made flesh, then they are actively working towards the damnation of people's souls.

This is hypothetical, but if a person is truly a believer in Christ, then this is the inescapable logic that must arise from the beliefs.

Non-existence is not a "vacuum" or a nothingness, because such things assume the lack of something else. And polarity or difference in themselves generate a framework of existence.

Rather, non-existence is the absolute null of all things, including non-existence itself. But the null of non-existence is, in fact, existence. Thus the only logically self-consistant state is that of being, not "not-being".

We have entered a period of faith. No great victory has ever been achieved without first passing through such a time.

So, either believe or don't believe. But remember that Caesar had lost all his political battles right before he crossed the Rubicon.

I've said this a million times, but Occam's Razor does not apply to human affairs. Humans tend to increase the complexity of a system.

That's a horrible, evil thing you went through, and I'm sorry it happened, but that is a fascinating ability you have. I believe it.