You said money is being printed but it is bank reserves (M1 money supply) and not circulating in the real economy (M2 money supply). But M2 money supply is going parabolic!
So you agree that the printed money has in fact entered into the real economy, rather than just existing as bank reserves?
Shadow Stats has consumer price increases around 14% year over year. This is multifactorial, both demand-side (parabolic money printing by Fed, budget deficits and trade deficits) and supply-side (supply chain issues, labor market, increased government regulations on private companies). Raising interest rates was the implemented solution in the 1970's but even a 1-2% increase in interest rates would essentially make the US Gov insolvent on it's debts and may cause immediate catastrophic asset price deflation (maybe this is what you're getting at). Joseph Yang also makes a strong argument that in this economic environment raising the Fed fund rate would actually increase the M2 money supply rather than decreasing it. So raising interest rates may be counterproductive.
So now we have an environment with decreased supply of goods / services, increased money supply and the only thing the government knows how to do is print more money (increase M2) and raise regulations (decrease supply of goods / services). It's very possible asset prices will crash / go into a deflationary environment in the nearish future, but consumer prices will likely experience 10-20%+ year over year inflation for the next few years, even if asset prices crash.
If you're talking asset prices (homes etc.), then yes, that may crash due to deflation. But consumer prices? We're looking at long-term sustained super-inflation.
M2 money supply increased by 21% in 2020. This was spearheaded by fiscal deficits and trade deficits. If you're only looking at the Federal Reserve then you're missing the big picture.
You're moving the goalpost?
You said money is being printed but it is bank reserves (M1 money supply) and not circulating in the real economy (M2 money supply). But M2 money supply is going parabolic!
So you agree that the printed money has in fact entered into the real economy, rather than just existing as bank reserves?
Shadow Stats has consumer price increases around 14% year over year. This is multifactorial, both demand-side (parabolic money printing by Fed, budget deficits and trade deficits) and supply-side (supply chain issues, labor market, increased government regulations on private companies). Raising interest rates was the implemented solution in the 1970's but even a 1-2% increase in interest rates would essentially make the US Gov insolvent on it's debts and may cause immediate catastrophic asset price deflation (maybe this is what you're getting at). Joseph Yang also makes a strong argument that in this economic environment raising the Fed fund rate would actually increase the M2 money supply rather than decreasing it. So raising interest rates may be counterproductive.
So now we have an environment with decreased supply of goods / services, increased money supply and the only thing the government knows how to do is print more money (increase M2) and raise regulations (decrease supply of goods / services). It's very possible asset prices will crash / go into a deflationary environment in the nearish future, but consumer prices will likely experience 10-20%+ year over year inflation for the next few years, even if asset prices crash.
If you're talking asset prices (homes etc.), then yes, that may crash due to deflation. But consumer prices? We're looking at long-term sustained super-inflation.