Disclaimer: calculations done with ChatGPT so take it with a grain of salt.

Estimating hit probability for a 0.5 in² target at 140 m with AR-15 iron sights

This is a brutally tiny target for that setup. Here’s an approximate calculation to show the order of magnitude rather than an exact figure.

Key geometry and conversion

• Target size (square): area (A = 0.5\ \text{in}^2), side (s = \sqrt{0.5} \approx 0.707\ \text{in}).
• Effective “hit radius” (half-side): (a = s/2 \approx 0.3535\ \text{in}).
• Distance: (140\ \text{m} \approx 153\ \text{yd}).
• MOA scaling: (1\ \text{MOA}) at (153\ \text{yd} \approx 1.603\ \text{in}).

Dispersion assumptions for “budget AR-15 + irons”

Even with a decent zero and good fundamentals, practical shooter-and-rifle dispersion with iron sights typically lands around (3\text{–}6\ \text{MOA}) at this distance.

• 3 MOA (optimistic): group diameter (\approx 4.81\ \text{in}), radius (R \approx 2.40\ \text{in}).
• 4 MOA (typical): diameter (\approx 6.41\ \text{in}), radius (R \approx 3.20\ \text{in}).
• 6 MOA (conservative): diameter (\approx 9.62\ \text{in}), radius (R \approx 4.81\ \text{in}).

Approximate hit probability (assuming uniform distribution):

[ p \approx \frac{A_{\text{target}}}{A_{\text{group}}} = \frac{0.5}{\pi R^2} ]

• 3 MOA: (p \approx 2.8%).
• 4 MOA: (p \approx 1.6%).
• 6 MOA: (p \approx 0.7%).

Effects of motion and wind

• Moving target: Adds lead estimation error, inflating dispersion by ~50%. Probabilities drop to ~1.2%, 0.7%, 0.3%.
• Light wind: At ~153 yd, drift can be 1–2 in if uncorrected, which is multiples of the target’s half-side. This further reduces practical hit chance.

Direct answer

With a budget AR-15 and iron sights at 140 m, hitting a 0.5 in² target on a moving object in light wind is extremely unlikely. Under optimistic conditions (3 MOA, perfect center, good lead), you’re in the low single-digit percent range; more typical conditions put you well under 1%, and motion/wind correction errors drive it closer to near-zero.

So no way a faggot on antidepressants and hormone therapy would be able to do it.