This is basically a propaganda chart. The giveaways:
It's an indexed chart, everybody starts at index 100 from year 2000. It should be absolute level, and start from similar comparative time (say GDP/population level) for each country.
It's not credit growth divided by GDP (growth) or population (growth). If it wanted to make any sense, it would be.
Remember, Zeihan can be useful, but he doesn't understand fucking anything about economics and he is seriously skewed and biased in his POV.
debt/GDP/Population graphs growth starting from zero.
Then you can compare country to another and to historic averages and crash levels.
The other way is to compare China only (but you still need an honest start point, from zero, not indexed from year 2000) and then you compare to exponential growth. If it's hyper-exponential (parabolic), then it'll crash (Read Didier Sornette's mathematical analysis about this).
But yeah, on the overall I agree:
ALL Big 20 countries in terms of GDP have gone hog wild on debt overgrowth.
No way real economic growth can pay that back using the natural resources of energy and people we have.
So, they will ALL collapse.
The question is only : where does it begin first.
I've been waiting for that collapse for 23+ years, so don't hold your breath....
No, China debt didn't start from zero in 2000. That's what you don't seem to grok.
It started from China's INDEX LEVEL=100, which was the amount of debt at the beginning of year 2000.
The graphs on charts cannot be compared to each other. Only the growth rate fro that period can. That's all.
And yeah, I feel like we are at the verge of collapse too.
But I also felt that in 1999, and then 9/11 happened. And they printed.
And I felt it again in 2007. and then GFC happened in 2008-2009, and they printed some more.
And I felt it again in 2019 with the US Gov debt sales failure and then COVID magically hit in 2020, and they printed oh so much fucking more.
And I'm starting to feel it again, but my clock is saying 2024 and I'm sure they will pull some fucking rabbit out of their hat again. War, Comet, Alien invasion, something.
This is basically a propaganda chart. The giveaways:
It's an indexed chart, everybody starts at index 100 from year 2000. It should be absolute level, and start from similar comparative time (say GDP/population level) for each country.
It's not credit growth divided by GDP (growth) or population (growth). If it wanted to make any sense, it would be.
Remember, Zeihan can be useful, but he doesn't understand fucking anything about economics and he is seriously skewed and biased in his POV.
Read other POVs to get a fuller picture.
You can only conclude that AFTER you've done:
debt/GDP/Population graphs growth starting from zero.
Then you can compare country to another and to historic averages and crash levels.
The other way is to compare China only (but you still need an honest start point, from zero, not indexed from year 2000) and then you compare to exponential growth. If it's hyper-exponential (parabolic), then it'll crash (Read Didier Sornette's mathematical analysis about this).
But yeah, on the overall I agree:
ALL Big 20 countries in terms of GDP have gone hog wild on debt overgrowth.
No way real economic growth can pay that back using the natural resources of energy and people we have.
So, they will ALL collapse.
The question is only : where does it begin first.
I've been waiting for that collapse for 23+ years, so don't hold your breath....
No, China debt didn't start from zero in 2000. That's what you don't seem to grok.
It started from China's INDEX LEVEL=100, which was the amount of debt at the beginning of year 2000.
The graphs on charts cannot be compared to each other. Only the growth rate fro that period can. That's all.
And yeah, I feel like we are at the verge of collapse too.
But I also felt that in 1999, and then 9/11 happened. And they printed.
And I felt it again in 2007. and then GFC happened in 2008-2009, and they printed some more.
And I felt it again in 2019 with the US Gov debt sales failure and then COVID magically hit in 2020, and they printed oh so much fucking more.
And I'm starting to feel it again, but my clock is saying 2024 and I'm sure they will pull some fucking rabbit out of their hat again. War, Comet, Alien invasion, something.
So I'm not holding my breath anymore.