USD is going away, it's just a slow process, as there is NO (as Every correctly states) A) currency to take the role of USD B) deep/large enough Gov debt markets to take over the role of US Gov debt C) replacement for SWIFT globally D) replacement for US controlled hubs/nodes of Internet/satellites/GPS needed for global trade settlement E) protection of global trade routes (beyond what US military does) E) Global system of settling deals, letters of credit, currency transactions in multi-currency systems instantly (well, IMF did just announce ÜniCoin, so it's the first needed step, but not enough).
None of that exists CURRENTLY.
Hence the eroding of USD will happen step by step, slowly, until the other pieces are in place.
While at the same time building up the middle class consumption potential of Asia, South America and Africa, to replace the "golden billion" consumers.
So, it's a slow burn. USD won't collapse overnight, unless there is a direct global war and USA is (again) stupid enough to weaponize the rest of the system it still controls.
And I'm writing this as NOT as a BRICS lover, but as a citizen living in the Golden billion countries - the sinking ship. I just call it as I see it. And this process is beyond my control, so no use denying it.
But yes, if you're time interval in investing or horizon in predictions is 1-3 years, then Every is right. USD is not going anywhere, it'll slowly erode, and because it does and US will squeeze the system, there will be a liquidity crisis causing USD to rise in valued vis-a-vis other fiat currencies, ironically leading into the hastening of the abandonment of USD by the other players.
Sure, it can all come crashing down due to stupidity and unforeseen consequences, but that is not in the interest of USA nor the BRICS+++ (crash is always uncontrolled, chaotic, causes problems... whereas slow phasing out is more easy to control).
No, you misread Every.
USD is going away, it's just a slow process, as there is NO (as Every correctly states) A) currency to take the role of USD B) deep/large enough Gov debt markets to take over the role of US Gov debt C) replacement for SWIFT globally D) replacement for US controlled hubs/nodes of Internet/satellites/GPS needed for global trade settlement E) protection of global trade routes (beyond what US military does) E) Global system of settling deals, letters of credit, currency transactions in multi-currency systems instantly (well, IMF did just announce ÜniCoin, so it's the first needed step, but not enough).
None of that exists CURRENTLY.
Hence the eroding of USD will happen step by step, slowly, until the other pieces are in place.
While at the same time building up the middle class consumption potential of Asia, South America and Africa, to replace the "golden billion" consumers.
So, it's a slow burn. USD won't collapse overnight, unless there is a direct global war and USA is (again) stupid enough to weaponize the rest of the system it still controls.
And I'm writing this as NOT as a BRICS lover, but as a citizen living in the Golden billion countries - the sinking ship. I just call it as I see it. And this process is beyond my control, so no use denying it.
But yes, if you're time interval in investing or horizon in predictions is 1-3 years, then Every is right. USD is not going anywhere, it'll slowly erode, and because it does and US will squeeze the system, there will be a liquidity crisis causing USD to rise in valued vis-a-vis other fiat currencies, ironically leading into the hastening of the abandonment of USD by the other players.
Sure, it can all come crashing down due to stupidity and unforeseen consequences, but that is not in the interest of USA nor the BRICS+++ (crash is always uncontrolled, chaotic, causes problems... whereas slow phasing out is more easy to control).