The defectors would be shot, this MSM story that they're fleeing conscription aboard planes is an obvious strategy right? Expect 'pro Russian rebels' to suddenly rise up all over Europe, Crimean Peninsula style.
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It will be interesting to look at it, but it is unlikely. To effectively interfere with internal politics you need instigator with perfect local language, good knowledge of local nuances, huge organizing abilities and stable financing. Hardly those that fleed from Russia have that properties.
Probability that Europeans will flee to Russia is much higher. :) After banning Shengen visas for Russians in Europe, Russian authorities recently simplified visas for Europeans.
Crimea always had overhelming Russian etnicity. There was no need for any Russian intervention, especially when dumb US puppets in Ukrainian government prohibited Russian language and education. After that complete stupidity Crimea loss was inevitable.