This is how agri system flows work temporally (roughly).

1. There is lack of fertilizer and or seeds or fuel for Year 2022 spring harvesting [happened]

2. Summer 2022 crop yields go down [happening]

3. There is a delay / problems in summer 2022 crop yields exports (say, due to war, logistics, trade wars or lack of trade routes) to food importing nations in summer 2022 / fall 2022 [happening now]

4. In fall 2022 people are still eating mostly grain stock from year 2021 (previous year), but food prices due to rising crop and futures prices, start to rise. This is still within max 20-30% range

5. Fall planting/harvesting gets more issues from lack/price of fertilizer/fuel/pesticide/herbicide. This cuts into the stock levels crops going into storage for 2023 [will most likely happen]

6. by end of 2022 stock/storage of crops from 2021 have been eaten. Futures prices and food prices start reflecting this, along with the fact of lesser crop yields/diminished exports of 2022 [already baked into 2022 events]

7. By 2023 Food prices start to rise, the further in the year we continue, as storage from diminished yield/imports harvest year 2022 start to show. This results in crops/food item shortages and intermittent price hikes and continued rising food inflaation (over 20%).

8. By mid-year 2023 the least rich, most populous, most grain crops importing nations have been priced out of the market by rich OECD countries. People in these poorer countries starve. They start uprising, governments topple. People stare masse emigrating away, in hopes of finding food and opportunities.

9. By late 2023 food shortages, rationing, end user food price inflation of 50-200% is reality even in some rich OECD countries. The best insulated are those, who are least dependent on imported crops, imported fertilizer and imported fuels and had a good 2022 crop yield with good storage levels.

10. During all this, big food exporting nations (esp. emerging ones) start protecting their own stability by STOPPING food exports (in order to save food for their own citizens, so they won't rebel). This results in more food shortage, bilateral trade deals, disruptions in futures markets and chaos for multinationals trying to hedge availability/price of food.

So, food shortages and price inflation is coming, but it won't properly hit until 2023.

IF Ukraine war continues, IF Russia is sanctioned longer/further, IF Russia / China / Brazil start supporting each other even more and IF fertilizer/fuel prices keep rising and or being volatile, then all this ever so more likely.

I give it a 50-70% subjective probability to happening next year.

The actual end results (severity) depend on where you live and how well prepared and self-sufficient in food / energy production your country is. US will be mostly just fine, even if the prices rise.

Africa, Middle East, many parts of Asia and some parts of Europe, not so much.