About that post: https://conspiracies.win/p/15IXpITedE/was-looking-at-an-oil-price-hist/
User funturistic found a similarities in some prices graphs and had a reasonable question about it.
So, what the hell is going on? If you are an engineer with open mind you already know the answer. For others, I'll try to explain it as easy as possible.
I thought a little and find simple parallel/analogy from engineering world, very obvious and simple. You will get it easily.
Just imagine you have a noisy audio amplifier. You want to find a source of noise and fix it. You measure voltages inside amplifier circuit against shield/ground/case and everywhere you see the same noise. Say, you have an amplifier power supply with -15, 0 and +15 Volts outputs. Against shield/ground, every output show that noise. But when you measure voltages between 0V and -15V or 0V and +15V or -15V and +15V there is no any noise at all. Outputs are clean and stable. So, it is obvious, that the source of noise is unhinged shielding/ground wire, not amplifier itself. As soon as you tightly tie shielding/ground wire to, say, 0V of power supply, noise will immidiately disappear and you will see clean and sensible signal on the input and output of amplifier.
Another parallel, even more simple:
Imagine that you want to study changes of water level in the lake. But to measure it you select a board of boat full of jumping clowns as reference point instead of lake shore or bottom. You measure water level with your wrong reference and find out a lot of noise. Clowns are jumping in the boat and the boat is heavily pitching. You measure distnace from boat board to bottom and shore and see the same noise. Does that measurements have any sense in lake studying? Absolutely not. You choose wrong reference point, and measuring not the changes of lake water level, but exclusively the activity of clowns in the boat.
And here is exactly the same thing with gold, oil, bitcoin, whatever. You observe only the noise in ground wire, fucking clowns twerking in boat, and that noise/twerking is same for anything you try to check or measure. So, you just select wrong, unconnected reference point to study values. Source of that noise/twerking is not oil, gold, crypto, whatever themselves, but clearly the USD itself.
Unless you select correct, stable reference point or thorougly tie currency to some decent reference value, there is no any sense to analyse your circuit or measure lake water level by that noisy shit.
I understand that it could be hard to accept that fiat currency (USD) is not an universal common measure for the value of commodities, and in no way could be used to do any conclusions about economy. It is especially hard to accept if you indoctrinated with that bullshit named "economy science", but for any sane engineer it is just an obvious fact. USD (and any other fiat currency) is an unhinged source of noise in the system. And highly probably, it is unhinged purposedly to allow noise, and noise is completely artificial and intended. That noise allows extraction of wealth from the society by real USD owners.
You can't study economy processes in society using such reference point. And you absolutely can't make any sensible conclusion about economy using that thing. Looking on the prices of commodities in fiat currency you could only observe fucking clowns twerking in the boat, nothing else.
Any "economist" who use "price in USD" for making any research or conclusion about the state of economy is just a charlatan or one of that clowns twerking in the boat. And deserves nothing but the punch in the lying face from any sane human being.
There's analysts that normalize for prices of currencies. You could do the same. Difficult to do without a currency basket approach. USD is large enough you could probably use self normalization.
It is senseless. You could easily normalize noise signal, but it still would be senseless noise.
Until you get rid of noise (USD/EUR/RUB/whatever state currency) in economy analysis, you will not get real picture. You could only get noise, nothing more. That's the point.
IDK, but I think unless you completely get rid of fiat in your calculations, you are doomed.
As an alternative approach to find out real economy you have to replace fiat with something real and universal. For now, I suppose it could be an energy and, say, kWh as a unit of price. You could get exact prime cost of anything in kWh spent to produce it. Including employer salaries that spent on other things nominated in kWh and so on. You will get a prime costs of everything in kWh. It will be a huge system of linear equations with profits (difference between prime costs and price for end user) as unknown variables. Total sum should be 0 - you can't put kWhs to the bank or bury in the chest under old oak - all produced energy will be spent to make things (including energy spent for heating/cooling employees apartments and all that stuff). Solving that system you get full picture - all prime costs and all retail costs for all possible commodities. So you could start to find out all that supply-demand and other stuff in that info where is no any noise from fiat currency that effectively hide reality.
It is a huge thing, but I think it is perfectly possible to solve with modern computing power. I know, it is enormous job for a large group of researchers, and I don't have a clue if it is possible to organize such research by means of small anti-elite communities, but it have to be done. May be it will be done after fiat currencies crash, or under some other circumsnaces when there will be no any other way to deal with the mess elites will leave for us.
May be you would not like what you finally find out, but truth doen't have to be pleasant.
Production costs might be simpler. Contained within this then is energy costs but also food costs and what not. Every night but common denominator but challenging to isolate.