When SHTF, a lot of folks here may be stocked to the hilt with canned foods, buckets of dried foods, rice, etc. when shit really begins to hit the fan there are a few major reasons why you should steer clear of your stockpile for as long as possible:
# 1
If it gets to the point where do you feel compelled to start consuming your prep, then that means things are likely not gonna be getting better for a very long time, which means that you should be out there in the streets/stores groveling for whatever remaining supplies you can get, and continuing to stockpile excess while reducing your consumption to subsistence levels.
By the time that available supply runs out, everybody who has no prep will perish (this is not a good thing - don't celebrate the demise of others, just because they were too ignorant to prepare). After this period of time passes, there will be a lot fewer remaining people to consume whatever resources remain, which means that you may not have to dip into your stockpile to survive. If things continue downwards from this point (think of a worst case scenario like a nuclear winter), you will still have whatever number of months of supplies that you started with to survive the real SHTF that ensues.
Reason # 1 could be summed up as "shit can always get much worse".
# 2
The next reason is that you may think shit has hit the fan, and so you begin to consume your stockpile, and then suddenly things turn around and start getting better, and now you have consumed your stock pile and you are no longer prepared for whatever comes next, while the likelihood of another SHTF scenario probably increases exponentially after this point in time (due to all the systems that will have failed as a result of the first SHTF).
# 3
If your neighbors and everybody around you have been going to the store/other resource pool, and you have just been comfortably hiding out in your house (to avoid chaos, etc.), then the likelihood of somebody nearby realizing that you are stocked up goes up increases.
The first point stands on its own and should be reason enough to follow this advice.
BONUS
Whatever food preps you have, add 100 pounds of rice AND 1 water filter (life straw or Sawyer Mini) per person to that. It's cheap AF, you can buy cheap mylar bags from Amazon and oxygen absorbers to put in those bags and the race will last for many years. And then you will have about six months extra runway when SHTF.
Here are the mylar bags:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08MDWBMY4/
Here are the oxygen absorbers:
Love to hear your thoughts on my situation.
I live in a high rise in a major metro area. There is 3 levels of security before you can get up to my floor, on the 20th and only one way in to my unit.
My thought was to shelter in place. My mother was part of the evacuation of Houston for Hurricane Ike and that was a complete cluster. She spent 7 hours stuck on 45N surrounded by everybody and their brother trying to do the same. The idea of bugging out feels like it would be doomed from the start, unless you had forewarning. While I know most people say "get out of the cities", I am thinking that could work for me. If I hunker down, reinforce my door, I might weather the worst of it.
I have been stockpiling food and water, but could do more.
I have purchased a 9mm and have 10 boxes of ammo, mixture of FMJ and hollow points.
Your opinion would be appreciated.
Thanks.
Hey, pertaining trying to bug out in real time, I agree with you that, unless you have the forethought to realize "OK this shit is about to get real" at least a day in advance, you're probably gonna be stuck in the city and those who try to bug out will risk being stuck somewhere in the road.
Getting out of the city while you still can is a great idea, unless you're really tied to the city for some reason. If that reason is just that you like the city, get out; you can always come back later when things calm down again. If you've gotta be there for family/worker reasons, it is what it is, but you might still take a look at the suburbs to see if there is an affordable option outside of the urban perimeter.
If you are going to stay, make sure you've got everything you think you need for many months (as much as you can afford / have room to store). One of the big problems in a city, and especially up in a tall building, is water. Municipal water is only on because there are people there 24 hours a day making sure it's on. In a small town, there are ponds, creeks, swimming pools, etc. that you can just grab some water out of and filter, if you need to. In a big city, you need to be prepared to have your own water source. One of the things you can do is plan to bleach out your bathtub and fill it with water at the last minute, but I would also recommend a dedicated water storage solution like this:
https://www.usaberkeyfilters.com/products/aquatank-ii-emergency-water-storage-container/
1 gallon of water per person per day for at least 60 days is a good start. And then, just like in the original post, plan to find other water to consume until you absolutely cannot find any and then you can consume your emergency source.