Come now, what would be the odds of that? It's not like the country is run by a KGB spymaster with ties to global economic institutions, whose tenure as head of state was noted for his shrewd economic policies... oh, wait.

If anything, I'm more puzzled by the lower-scale operations of the conflict. To put it simply, nobody wages war like that. Nobody just dumps a bunch of equipment and vehicles, all of them evidently old and poorly maintained. My best guess is that they're trying to create a new Somalia in west Ukraine, that would serve as a buffer state between Russia and the EU/NATO, a veritable no-man's-land where anything goes.

And in turn, the EU is playing right into it (or secretly supporting it) by sending more weapons, specifically to be distributed to civilians. Again, nobody does that - nobody sends RPGs to conscripts and irregulars, since they're more likely to end up hurting themselves than the enemy. It's even more suspicious that a lot of these weapons have themselves turned out to be obsolete or barely functional models, adding more credence to the weapon dump theory above.