Simplistic plague mammal population scenarios without proper balancing feedbacks, but interesting how well they have tracked so far.

Paper here:

https://advisory.kpmg.us/content/dam/advisory/en/pdfs/2021/yale-publication.pdf

The meat of the paper is in the comparison of actual real world data changes compared to the original LtG scenarios from 70s:

https://files.catbox.moe/bsquu1.png

The paper concludes that BAU2 and CT models track the real world data proxies (the author chose) the best.

From the conclusion:

"BAU2 shows a clear collapse pattern, whereas CT suggests the possibility of future declines being relatively soft landings, at least for humanity in general."

"data most aligns with the CT and BAU2 scenarios which indicate a slowdown and eventual halt in growth within the next decade or so, but World3 leaves open whether the subsequent decline will constitute a collapse."

I find it unlikely that anybody makes any planning based on these models anymore, but hey, it's a nice exercise to compare 50 year old model to reality.