So, the GOP won big last night, across the board. Reason? They couldn't stop the count at 3 a.m. and pump in the mail in ballots. Expect similar results in the mid term elections. It's hard to fix 435 House races and 33 Senate races, though they might pick off a couple close races with mail in ballots. That's what gave us Simena in AZ and that stupid Saturday Night Live comedian in MN a few years ago.
This is not to say that election fraud isn't a problem, and this is not to say "vote harder" or whatever straw man you want.
This post is to say, that when Trump wins in 2024 without COVID as cover to pump in the mail in ballots at 3am after kicking out the election observers, then, and only then, will we really be in danger of a 2nd civil war over an election.
Further, if I was Trump, I'd be buying some insurance. I'd be working with rural County Clerks in blue states to do the same thing that the inner city County Clerks do, which is pump in the fake ballots.
I'm not as hopeful as you, because I don't know the size of the "we" that you refer too. It could be 25 to 1, or more like 1 to 1 (or less) like the IRA had to deal with.
In the end, though, the US is pretty bad with dealing with insurrections, but that's only in other countries. It's 2 for 2 on US soil, if you count the Whiskey Rebellion, and the South did an amazing job killing a lot of Yankees at that.
To me, it depends on if the rebels get the government to give up. There is a reason Lincoln imprisoned journalists who wanted to let the South go, which they had every damn right to leave at that.