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23
6x more likely to die from covid if vaxed (media.conspiracies.win)
posted 5 years ago by KiloRomeo 5 years ago by KiloRomeo +23 / -0
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– TurnToGodNow 1 point 5 years ago +1 / -0

I don't see 6x more likely. I think you are crunching the numbers wrong. It does show more vaxxed dying, but the ratio is more like 2:1.

(10+69+402) = 481 vs 253

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– KiloRomeo [S] 1 point 5 years ago +1 / -0

It’sa bit complicated but I’ll share my steps:

  1. P(death|vax,delta)= 402÷47008=.00855
  2. P(death|^vax,delta)= 253÷151054=.00167
  3. Odds(death|^vax vs vax)=(.00855/(1-.00855))/(.00167/(1-.00167))=5.15

So overall it’s 5.15. It’s 6.2 for folks >50.

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– TurnToGodNow 1 point 5 years ago +1 / -0

Ok I can see that now, the denominator matters. But couldn't they also argue then that the vaccine is reducing the number of cases, so they could say in absolute terms it is not 5x.

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– KiloRomeo [S] 1 point 5 years ago +1 / -0

Yeah that’s fair though it’s tricky since there’s no dod way to know what the denominator is there. Would need to do correlation across a time series.

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