Thinking about it refraction might not be the way to describe OPs picture. It is not that easy understanding these effects.

It is a picture at sea level. With how perspective works, the farther away a object gets the smaller it appears. In the first link I posted it shows that there is distortion even at very short distances when you get close enough to the ground.

With wind the waves are a couple of metres high, the camera is not high enough over the ways, so a couple of meters gets blocked from the horizon, by the wavs. Maybe distortion with such a low camera is the right word.